Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz Predictions, Picks, UFC 249 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 5/4/2020

Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz

UFC 249

VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Henry Cejudo will face off against Dominick Cruz at UFC 249 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on Saturday, May 9, 2020. The moneyline has Cejudo priced at -225 while Cruz is priced at +185.

Henry "The Messenger" Cejudo comes into this fight holding a mark of 15-2-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 64". Dominick "The Dominator" Cruz stands in at 5'8" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 22-2-0. The 35-year-old stretches 68". Regarding significant strikes, Henry Cejudo is connecting on 3.82 per min and Dominick Cruz connects on 3.53 significant strikes per min. Cejudo lands 44% of the significant strikes he tries and Cruz connects on 31%. When it comes to the fighter's defense, "The Messenger" absorbs 2.73 significant strikes per min and "The Dominator" takes 2.15. Cejudo also defends 65% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Cruz is able to curb 74% of the shots thrown in his direction.

In terms of takedowns, Henry Cejudo is the lesser skilled wrestler as he gets a takedown 2.16 times per 3 rounds. Cejudo is taking his opponents to the canvas on 35% of his attempts and is defending 90% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Cruz is scoring a takedown on 50% of his takedown tries and is defending 83% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Cejudo is the more capable of the two fighters by going for 0.2 submissions per 15 minutes while Cruz attempts 0.1 submissions per 3 rds.

In his previous bout, Henry Cejudo faced Marlon Moraes and wound up getting the victory via a punch to the head while on the ground in round 3. Moraes landed 59 of 121 total strikes attempted in that contest. Cejudo finished this fight landing 99 of 182 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Moraes landed 57 of 119, which means his percentage was 47%. He finished the fight landing 35 of 89 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Cejudo ended up landing 52% of his significant strikes by sticking 90 of 171. Out of those significant strikes, he was 73 of 150 pointed at the head. 94% of the significant strikes connected on by Moraes and 50% of them connected on by Cejudo were thrown at distance.

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In the last fight for Dominick Cruz, he squared up with Cody Garbrandt and walked away with a loss via unanimous decision in round 5. Garbrandt ended up landing 97% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Cruz ended up connecting on 95% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Cruz ended up landing 30% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 88 of 291. He connected on 58 of 250 significant strikes to the head. Garbrandt ended up connecting on 68 of 195 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 47 of 164 directed at the head. When discussing the total strikes thrown in this fight, Garbrandt connected on 71 of 198 while Cruz ended up connecting on 95 of 298 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Francis Ngannou takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Ngannou steps into the Octagon holding a record of 14-3-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 250 lbs and measures 6'4". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 83". Rozenstruik measures 6'4" and is fighting at 242 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 10-0-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 78". Regarding grappling, Francis Ngannou takes his opponents to the mat 0.43 times per 15 min while Jairzinho Rozenstruik is averaging a takedown 0.32 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Ngannou connects on 2.15 strikes/min and connects on 37% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who lands 46% of the strikes he attempts and connects for an average of 3.72 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Calvin Kattar is set to clash with Jeremy Stephens. Stephens steps into the cage holding a record of 28-17-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 145 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 71". Kattar comes in at 5'11" and weighs 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 20-4-0. The 32-year-old has an arm span of 72". In the category of takedowns, Jeremy Stephens is preventing 65% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedowns on 38% of his attempts. Kattar is taking his opponents down on 33% of his attempts and is able to deflect 77% of the takedowns his opponents try. Concerning striking, Stephens absorbs 2.98 strikes/min and he deals 3.09 strikes per min. Kattar, in contrast, takes 6.36 strikes/min and is connecting on 5.12 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Dominick Cruz (+185)

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