Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson Predictions, Picks, UFC 249 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 5/4/2020

Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson

UFC 249

VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Carla Esparza will face off against Michelle Waterson at UFC 249 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on Saturday, May 9, 2020. The opening odds have Esparza priced at -160 while Waterson is priced at +140.

Carla "Cookie Monster" Esparza comes into this fight holding a mark of 16-6-0. The 32-year-old weighs in at 115 lbs and stands in at 5'1". The orthodox fighter reaches 63". Michelle "The Karate Hottie" Waterson measures in at 5'3" and weighs in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 17-7-0. The 34-year-old extends her reach 62". Regarding significant strikes, Carla Esparza is landing 2.22 per min while Michelle Waterson connects on 3.35 significant strikes per min. Esparza is connecting on 40% of the significant strikes she tries and Waterson is connecting on 53%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "Cookie Monster" allows 2.86 significant strikes per minute and "The Karate Hottie" absorbs 3.88. Esparza also stops 53% of the significant strikes her opponents throw her way while Waterson stops 48% of the shots thrown.

Concerning takedowns, Carla Esparza is the more competent wrestler as she takes her opponents to the canvas 3.53 times per 3 rds. Esparza is getting her opponent to the mat on 36% of her tries and stuffing 48% of all takedown attempts. Waterson is getting her opponent to the mat on 50% of the takedowns she attempts and stuffing 57% of all takedowns attempted on her. When it comes to going for the sub, Esparza is not as skilled of a technician by going for 0.3 submissions per 3 rds while Waterson goes for 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes.

In her last fight, Carla Esparza went up against Alexa Grasso and took home the win via majority decision in round 3. Grasso ended up landing 103 of 169 of the strikes she let go in total for this contest. Esparza finished this fight landing 115 of 157 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Grasso landed 45 of 103, which means her percentage was 43%. She landed 41 of 97 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Esparza ended up landing 55% of her significant strikes by connecting on 44 of 80. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, she landed 27 of 60 aimed at the head. 75% of the significant strikes landed by Grasso and 63% of them connected on by Esparza were tallied at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Michelle Waterson, she battled Joanna Jedrzejczyk and was on the losing end of this fight by way of unanimous decision in round 5. Jedrzejczyk ended up connecting on 73% of her significant strikes at distance and Waterson landed 75% of her significant strikes at distance. Waterson landed 36% of the significant strikes she attempted by connecting on 58 of 160. She ended up landing 25 of 84 significant strikes aimed at the head. Jedrzejczyk landed 180 of 300 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, she ended up landing 48 of 136 directed at the head. In regard to total strikes thrown in that contest, Jedrzejczyk ended up connecting on 226 of 347 while Waterson ended up connecting on 71 of 174 of all the strikes she attempted.

Other fights to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Tony Ferguson squares up against Justin Gaethje. Ferguson steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 26-3-0. The 36-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 76". Gaethje comes in at 5'11" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a record of 21-2-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 70". When it comes to grappling, Tony Ferguson takes his opponents down 0.56 times per 15 min and Justin Gaethje scores a takedown 0.00 times per 3 rds. In terms of striking, Ferguson is landing 5.81 strikes per minute and lands 45% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Justin Gaethje, who connects on 55% of the strikes that he throws and lands an average of 8.57 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Dominick Cruz is set to take on Henry Cejudo. Cejudo comes into this fight holding a mark of 15-2-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 64". Cruz stands in at 5'8" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 22-2-0. The 35-year-old stretches 68". Regarding wrestling, Henry Cejudo deflects 90% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is finishing his takedowns on 35% of his attempts. Cruz is finishing his takedowns on 50% of the tries he takes and stops 83% of the takedowns his opponents try. With reference to striking, Cejudo is absorbing 2.73 strikes/min and he dishes out 3.82 strikes/minute. Cruz, moreover, is taking 2.15 strikes/min and lands 3.53 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Carla Esparza (-160)

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