Dominic Thiem vs Matteo Berrettini Picks, Predictions ATP Nitto Finals Odds 11/14/2019

Dominic Thiem vs Matteo Berrettini

9 am EST, 14th November 2019

London, England

Hard courts (Indoor)

This is a meaningless game in terms of the general classification of Group B in the ATP Nitto Finals tournament. Dominic Thiem has already secured himself a first place and a spot in the semifinals by winning the first two matches. He was outstanding so far. He defeated two legends - Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Yesterday's match against Novak was probably one of the most exciting this year. Thiem came out on top after three grueling sets. They needed a tie-breaker in the last one, after almost 3 hours spent on the court. They both played on a very high level, battled it out and the Austrian was the last man standing. Just like in the semifinals of French open, couple of months ago. He had a lot of success in this second part of the season, which was quite surprising. He is a great player, but earlier in his career, he wasn't performing that well on hard courts, especially those that were indoors. But it seems that he found the right formula lately and these two last wins are proof of that.

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On the other side, Berrettini already booked his plane ticket to fly home after this match. But I don't believe he's too disappointed. Appearance in this tournament and playing with very top players in the world on the final tournament is a cherry on top of this great, breakout season for him. He is going to end up last in this group, after losing his first two matches vs Novak and Roger. But, there still is something on the line here. The prize money at this tournament is quite nice. Every win in the group stage is worth 215k, which is more than most of the champions get paid in ATP 250 tournaments. That is why this match is going to be competitive, despite the fact that Thiem is definitely the first in this group and Berrettini will be the last one.

Matchup

These two players are familiar with each other's games, considering they've already met three times so far, including twice in the last two months or so. Berrettini won in Shanghai (7-6 6-4), while Thiem successfully defended the home court in Vienna, eliminating the Italian in semifinals on his way to the title. Watching some matches in London, I couldn't shake off the feeling that the playing conditions are painfully slow. Court is "dead". It is not that bouncy and it's very difficult to hit through opposing defense in baseline rallies. Those are conditions that really bothered Thiem earlier in his career, considering that he is an aggressive baseliner that relies on his topspin forehand heavily. But lately, he found the right balance. He has a better feeling when to be neutral and just put the ball back in play and when he needs to inject some pace, flaten out his shot and go for it.

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Betting odds & prediction

Berrettini, on the other hand, didn't really figure that out yet. He was opened at +243 but dropped down to +217. The logic behind all that money on the underdog probably has something to do with Thiem already being in the first place, coming off of an exhausting match and a big win. It makes sense, but I still think that he won't forfeit those 215k just like that. One way or another, I don't see a long match here. If Thiem manages to recover well enough, he could win this one in straight sets, considering how well he's playing at the moment. But, if he's tired and is already looking ahead to the semifinals, Berrettini might take advantage and win himself some pocket money.

Pick: under 23 games (-120)