Stan Wawrinka vs Roger Federer French Open Picks and Tips - 6/4/2019

Stanislas Wawrinka vs Roger Federer

4 am EST, 4th June 2019

Roland Garros (Paris, France)

Court Philippe Chatrier

Intro

Great quarterfinal matchup between two countrymen and amazing tennis players. Roger Federer was avoiding clay tournaments in recent years to prepare better for grass court season and attack the Wimbledon title, which was way more realistic then beating Rafael Nadal at French Open. Not that Roger ever feared to play Rafa on clay, but had to make that business decision at the time. He was closing in on 35th birthday then. Playing tennis on clay is very demanding for the body and he was just not recovering well enough anymore, so he thought it is the best for him to skip some of those tourneys. After 3 years of absence, a decision was made that it is time to come back. He said that for the first time in his career, there is no pressure of the result upon him. Now he can just come out and play relaxed and see what happens. So far, so good. Stormed through the first 4 rounds without dropping a single set! But, realistically speaking there were no real obstacles in his way. Sonego and Rudd are talented but lack experience, while Leonardo Mayer wasn't completely healthy to put up a better fight. Stan will be a massive jump in competition and it will be interesting to see how Roger is going to respond.

Wawrinka had to work way harder to make it into the QF. He spent 12 hours and 27 minutes on the courts so far. He didn't look so sharp in the first round vs Kovalik, but as pretty much always, he raised the level once facing better players. And he had to because he wouldn't be able to fight through Garin, Dimitrov, and Tsitsipas without bringing his absolute best. And that statement is especially true for his previous match vs Tsitsipas. I was extremely impressed with that one. High-quality tennis from both guys throughout the entire match, inches deciding the winner in the end. Huge props for Stan, because it was a terrible matchup for him. Warm conditions vs someone that can put a lot of spin on the ball, making it bounce high of the clay and difficult to put proper pace on it. But he somehow managed to do it, proving once again that he is just on a mission right now and everybody should be aware of him.

Matchup

These two guys are no strangers to each other. They have met 25 times already. Roger dominating this H2H with a crazy 22-3 record. But when we look a bit closer into it, we can see that it's only 4-3 on this playing surface. All his wins came in pretty similar playing conditions. 2 times in Monte Carlo on a slower clay court and once here at the French Open. It was back in 2015 when Federer was eliminated in straight sets. And to me, it makes sense that Wawrinka was more competitive in slower conditions. Roger relies on his hands, touch, and flick of the wrist. He likes when the pace is already there. While Stan is the one with a proper weight behind the ball, that is able to generate a lot of power on his own and hit through the opponent. Considering the weather is cooling down these days in Paris, I think it gives some advantage to the underdog in this case.

Betting odds & prediction

Oddsmakers opened Federer at about -200 and shortly after, it was already very close to -300. I am not completely sure why is he such a popular play in this spot. Maybe the bettors were blinded by that 22-3 H2H and the way Roger looked so far in the tournament. But as I explained above, when you analyze those stats more thoroughly, you are able to find a more accurate story, saying that Stan is very much alive in this one. Some might be worried about him being fatigued after 5 hour match, but with a full day of rest in between, I don't think it's much of a factor.

Tony's Pick: Stan Wawrinaka +245

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