Stan Wawrinka vs Grigor Dimitrov ATP Point Spread Picks - 6/1/2019

Stanislas Wawrinka vs Grigor Dimitrov

4am EST, 31st May 2019

Roland Garros (Paris, France)

Intro

After going through a couple of matchups with no history between the players, we finally found one with an extensive track record. Stanislas Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov have been around for a while and mostly played at a very high level. Therefore, it is not surprising that their paths crossed multiple times in the later stages of the tournaments. After 8 matches played, they've got 4 wins each. On clay, Dimitrov won 2 out of 3. But most of those wins are dating a few years back. Those were the days when Grigor was at his best, ranked inside the top 15. He's ranked way lower at the moment, going through a very rough period in last year or so. It forced him to make some big changes so he decided to split with his longtime coach - Daniel Valverde. In Geneva and Paris, we could see an interesting duo in his box. I am talking about Andre Agassi and Radek Stepanek. They worked with Novak Djokovic last year, but that cooperation didn't last very long. Grigor could be a better fit for what they are trying to teach and I've already noticed some tweaks in his game that was most likely implemented by his new coaching staff.

On the other side, Stan did some splitting on his own. He is no longer in a relationship with Croatian player Donna Vekic. Relevant, irrelevant... I don't know. the fact is that he looked good on the court in Paris so far. His victory over up and coming Christian Garin was very impressive. Giving away only 5 games total is a sign that he is feeling the ball really well at the moment. He is always very dangerous in those type of situations. He has the power to spare and when he is placing the ball well, it's hard to do anything about it.

Matchup

Speaking of the things that are different in Dimitrov's game since the changes in his coaching staff. I feel like he's much more aggressive. He's not holding back with any of his shots. Pedal to the metal all the time. It's not something that I would recommend to most of the players, but Dimitrov has so much power, flair and technical ability that he is able to pull it off. Playing that way and winning on top is a great boost for confidence. So, with Dimitrov playing this way and Wawrinka not doing something totally different, I expect a shootout in this one. Like old school heavyweight boxing, where fighters are trying to knock each other out with every punch thrown. Grisha got through a similar type of match vs Cilic. It will be interesting to see if he can survive it once again.

Betting odds & prediction

I was not expecting the odds to be this wide. It seems like the market is still down on Dimitrov, failing to adjust to this recent improvement in his form. I guess they will need some time ( and a couple of wins) to start trusting him again, but in the meantime, we'll feast on some of this value. Wawrinka is a dangerous dude. There is no doubt about it. But I feel like he shouldn't be priced this high in a matchup where the daily form will play a big role. Whoever is going to feel the ball better and play with more confidence, will be the last man standing here. It's anybody's game in my opinion.

Guy's Pick: Grigor Dimitrov +250

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