Marton Fucsovics vs Milos Raonic ATP Point Spread Picks - 6/14/2019

Marton Fucsovics vs Milos Raonic

4 am EST, 14th June 2019

ATP Stuttgart, Germany

Grass courts

After a concerningly poor performance in the first round vs Alexei Popyrin, Milos Raonic looked way better in his 2nd round match. Playing against young Aussie, he was just off. Managed to put less than 50% of his first serve in play, which is shockingly poor. His forehand was rusty, missing numerous open shots down the line. He even took a medical time out for what looked like a lower back injury and was very lucky to escape with the victory in the end, after trailing 3-0 in the deciding set. Vs Tsonga, he was much sharper from the get-go. Broke Frenchman's serve in the first game, which was the only break of serve in the entire match, even though each of them had 17 serving games. Also in that first game, he had all of his 3 break chances. Tsonga on the other side had 3 of his own already in the next game (failed to convert). After that, they both turned into serving robots and combined for only 1 break opportunity until the end of the match (next 32 games). That was a pretty bizzare development, but I felt like Raonic deserved the win here. Not only did he served up 24 aces, but he was also slightly more proactive during the rallies, hitting his forehand with a purpose and causing many troubles to his opponent with the weight behind his shots. He obviously has his eyes on defending the points which he earned with the appearance in the finals last year. So far so good.

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In the quarterfinals, he'll be meeting a familiar face. Fucsovics was brutally removed out of his way at this same event last year when they met in the 2nd round. This year, Marton already built on his last year's placement, but it was not easy at all. In the first round, he barely edged out Jaume Munar. Young Spaniard with very little experience on the grass courts and honestly, no game for it. After that, another scrap. This time, Nikoloz Basilashvili was the one refusing to go down. They battled out for 2 hours and 20 minutes, during which Hungarian came back from a break down in the deciding set and saving 3 match points in the 10th game of that set. Crazy. Not winning by a landslide is probably not that big of a surprise. Fucsovics played below expectations during the summer clay courts season, after having probably his best year in 2018. Also, it was not expected from him to suddenly come alive on grass, where his pro record was 1-6.

Matchup

Raonic will be by far the toughest test for Fucsovics in this tournament so far. He got past Munar and Basilashvili because they were unable to take full advantage of these fast playing conditions. Milos definitely is capable of doing that. I already mentioned their match which they played here last year. Canadian won 6-2 6-4 which was also their only meeting so far. I don't see what Marton could do to change the course of the match and prevent that scoreline to repeat this time around. He will get bullied by Raonic's power once again. He can only hope for Milos to have an off day and help him with his own mistakes. But considering he seems to be warming up a little bit, that is not likely to happen.

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Betting odds & prediction

Raonic did have problems endangering opponents serve in the previous match, apart from that first game. But that was against Tsonga, who has a much better serve then Fucsovics. I believe he'll create more chances to break this time around and once he gets it, it will be very difficult to break back. That is why I was slightly surprised with the low spread line which was set by the bookmakers. -2.5 could potentially be covered with a single break of serve in the entire match. That is why I think there is some nice value hidden there.

Guy's Pick: Milos Raonic -2.5 (-102)

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