Lorenzo Sonego vs Adrian Mannarino ATP Betting Tips - 6/27/2019

Lorenzo Sonego vs Adrian Mannarino

6 am EST, 27th June 2019

ATP Antalya, Turkey

Grass courts

Adrian Mannarino successfully continued his winning streak stretching from the beginning of the tournament in Hertogenbosch, where he won his first career title couple weeks ago. And he needs to keep it going for at least a couple more matches, in order to defend the points won last year when he lost to Damir Dzumhur in the finals here. In current form, he's probably looking to build on that result and finally win a title in Antalya, after being stopped in the finals twice in a row. The last step of the tournament was insurmountable for him with a 0-6 record in the finals, before breaking the curse in Hertogenbosch. After receiving a bye in the first round here as a #2 seed, It was expected from him to do a quick work against Roberto Carballes Baena, but that win can be described with anything other than comfortable. He didn't really enjoy playing someone with a similar style to his, who can extend the rallies, keep the ball in play and not give away too many points with its mistakes. He was also not efficient enough when it mattered the most, converting only 4 out of 15 break opportunities. But in the end, Spaniard's inability to produce easy points behind its serve took its toll and helped Mannarino to prevail.

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After a slow start into his grass court season, Sonego is getting a hang of it and looks way better here comparing to his performance in Hertogenbosch and Halle where he lost to Kukushkin and Bachinger. And we can't say that the draw helped him out much here. He had to play #8 seed Joao Sousa in the opener, winning pretty comfortably in straight sets after Joao looking really good previous week in Halle. Second round win was not done in straight sets, but only thanks to a very good performance by Prajnesh Gunneswaran in the first set, where he barely edged out Lorenzo in the tie-break. Once Italian adjusted to Gunneswaran's style, it was all him for the rest of the match. He wasn't overwhelmed with the power of his opponent. He forced him to work very hard for every point and in the end won almost 40% of all returning points, helping him to break opponents serve 4 times in the match.

Matchup

It didn't seem to bother him that the Indian was a lefty, which is a good thing before facing Mannarino. But he will still have to make a lot of adjustments because the playing styles are very much different. Prajnesh relies on his power, while Mannarino is someone that is very creative with his shots selection and ball placement, making him a very tricky opponent to play against on the grass courts. All of his shots are very flat and the ball stays low to the ground, making it almost impossible to put pressure on him with some quality ball striking. Especially for a guy like Sonego, who has a big backswing on his forehand side and is unable to do his regular motion on this surface, because there is not enough time here. We'll see if he can keep his cool and come up with a gameplan to stay competitive in this match. He has a win over Mannarino in Rome, but that was played on clay where the Frenchman is way less dangerous than in these type of playing conditions.

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Betting odds & prediction

The line opened Mannarino -164, which was a bit short for a guy with a lot of success in this tournament previously and also playing very good tennis at the moment. The market reacted and pushed it all the way to -225. I like Sonego's competitive nature and the energy which he brings on the court every single match. But I'm not sure if that can help him this time around. Mannarino will put him in very challenging situations where he will not be able to go for the shots that are usually winning him points.

Tony's Pick: under 22.5 games (-105)

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