Juan I. Londero vs Corentin Moutet Expert ATP Picks Against the Spread - 5/31/2019

Juan Ignacio Londero vs Corentin Moutet

4am EST, 31st May 2019

Roland Garros (Paris, France)

Intro

A very interesting and unexpected matchup in the 3rd round of French Open. Although, this might not be such a big surprise after all. since Juan Ignacio Londero had some success on clay earlier this season. At 26, I believe it's fair to say he's a late bloomer. Never cracked top 100 before 2019. Finished last season as 120th player in the world and then made a massive breakthrough on the Golden swing earlier this year. Won the title in Cordoba out of nowhere. Those points came in handy and allowed him to avoid the challenger tour and become a regular at some of the top tournaments. He struggled a bit with that transition and came nowhere near that result from Cordoba. But in Paris, we are once again seeing some of the brilliant ball striking that he is able to produce, when playing at his best. Basilashvili didn't have his day in the first round, but even in some rare moments when playing well, Londero matched an overcame that without any problems. In the second round, he eliminated Richard Gasquet. Frenchmen might lost his step a little bit, but beating him in front of the home crowd can't be underestimated.

And when talking about home crowd support, Corentin Moutet received a fair share of it so far. He played some amazing tennis in both his wins. Some of the best I've seen from him so far. That first round win over Vatutin was expected, but destroying Pella in this type of fashion was definitely a huge upset. Argentinian is someone who can play on a high level throughout the match and is a relentless fighter. But he was simply helpless vs Moutet's style which is not ordinary in today's tennis.

Matchup

These days, players rely on their athleticism and power a lot. Moutet with 5'9 and 150lbs had to find another way to compete with some of the best and he did. His game is very versatile. There is a lot of thought behind every shot and every move. He's got a bunch of tricks up his sleeve and doesn't allow opponents to get some rhythm going. his agility and movement around the court are top notch. For older tennis fans, I would compare him to another undersized French tennis player - Fabrice "The Magician" Santoro.

His opponent is a complete opposite. Londero loves to stand in the middle and dictate the tempo by bashing the ball with full force from both wings. He managed to outstrike both Basilashvili and Gasquet with that type of play, but Moutet is going to do everything to move him off that spot and force him out of his comfort zone. He is not going to know what Moutet is throwing at him next. Is it a drop shot, backhand slice, topspin cross forehand to open up the court, or the one down the line for the winner. It's frustrating to play someone like that when he's hot and I believe Londero will find it challenging as well.

Betting odds & prediction

Have to admit that I was surprised when the line opened Londero -140. I knew that he already has some respect from the oddsmakers and the market which closed with him being even with Gasquet. But as I wrote above. This is a different matchup, where he is going to be forced to think outside the box and come up with solutions that are different from what usually wins matches for him. In that kind of situation, with opponent playing really good and in front of his home crowd, I don't think he should be the favorite.

Josh's Pick: Corentin Moutet +140

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