Fernando Verdasco vs Filip Krajinovic ATP Metz Picks 9/18/2019

ATP Metz

Fernando Verdasco vs Filip Krajinovic

11 am EST, 18th September 2019

Metz, France

Hard courts

After a very subpar period on hard courts, Krajinovic finally showed some life. The draw has assigned him a very tricky opponent in the first round of the tournament in Metz. Peter Gojowczyk is someone that you can't afford to underestimate because that will come back to haunt you. Especially in this kind of playing conditions, that fit the German player like a glove. He came out of the gates very strong in this match. Krajinovic was struggling to keep up with his flat groundstrokes during the rallies. He was simply to slow to get in position to defend those shots and play defense on his usual level. Approaching the end of the first set, he was getting a better feel on what his opponent is trying to do. His baseline game became sharper and after saving a set point, he took control over the match and ran away with it. He was clutch under pressure, saving all 3 breakpoints while converting 2/6 of his own.

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In the second round, he will play against Fernando Verdasco. Spaniard had a much easier job in the first round. He played vs Steve Darcis, who is jumping between ATP and Challenger tour these days. In this match, it was obvious why he is unable to make himself a regular at the bigger tournaments. He is simply not good enough. Darcis had some moments at times, but his performance is too inconsistent. He also lacks some effort at times. And that is a must-have for a player that doesn't have the physical tools and as much talent as other guys at this level. Nando needed just over an hour to get through to the second round, conceding only 4 games in the process. It was a much-needed win for Verdasco, after a rough period since the end of the grass-court season. But, it is important not to get too excited over this one win. The quality of tennis was still pretty bad overall.

Matchup

Playing conditions in Metz are pretty interesting. According to some of the players, balls that they use in this tournament fluff up pretty fast. That means that they get worn out faster than usual, which slows the play down. Also, they are not as bouncy, which is hurting players that play with more topspin. Fernando Verdasco is that type of player. Aggressive baseliner that combines power and topspin on his forehand to put pressure on his opponent. But as I said, that is going to be difficult to do with these tennis balls and he has the worst possible matchup in these playing conditions. Krajinovic is a player who can cover a lot of ground with his speed and get the ball back in play with his defensive skills. Trying to hit through that will be a challenge.

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Betting odds & prediction

The line opened Krajinovic -120. It bounced around a little bit, before stopping at current -115. There was no significant move here, which is probably an indication that the volume on this market is pretty even and there have been no strong opinions, one way or the other. I believe that the value is with the Serbian player considering the things I mentioned above. The line should be -135 or so.

The total is 23.5, which seems a bit high as well. We usually see this type of number in fast conditions with a couple of serve-bots involved. There will be more rallying in this match and less easy points behind the serves.

Pick: Filip Krajinovic -115

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