Dominic Thiem vs Richard Gasquet ATP Tokyo Picks 10/1/2019

Dominic Thiem vs Richard Gasquet

2.30 am EST, 1st October 2019

Beijing, China

Hard courts

Don't think either of these two players fell in love with the Beijing draw when it first came out. Especially Dominic Thiem. As No.1 seed, he probably hoped for an easier opponent and everybody knows, he really needs it right now. I'm saying that because his non-clay record this year is not up to his standards. He won 9 out of 15 matches and struggling badly since winning that clay title in Kitzbuhel. After that, he had few ugly losses, like the one to Fabbiano in the first round of the US Open. He also lost to Taylor Fritz at Laver Cup last week and quite shockingly to Emil Ruusuvouri in Davis Cup. He was completely taken apart by the young Finnish hope, that is currently ranked outside of Top 150. He overwhelmed him with power and Thiem simply didn't have enough time to place the ball where he intended and construct the points like he usually does. His record when playing this week is not promising either. He jumped back and forth between Tokyo and Beijing earlier in his career but had no success at either of these two fast court events. He is yet to win a match in 4 trys.

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On the other side, Richard Gasquet had way more success with a 20-13 record at these two events. And it seems to me that through the years, he figured out how to adjust his game to do better in faster conditions. It is why he was really good in Montreal and Cincinnati this year. He got all the way to the semifinals at the latter event. Was at the same stage last year in Tokyo, so he should be well prepared for this one, in order to defend all those points.

Matchup

Considering that both guys are playing at a high level for quite some time, it's not strange that they met each other in some of the tournaments before. Actually, it happened twice so far and surprisingly, Gasquet won both of the matches. Both events were held indoors on a hard court. Vienna 2017 and Basel 2015. Indoor events are on the faster side, more often than not. Another proof that Thiem is really not feeling well in that type of playing conditions.

These in Beijing are pretty fast as well, from what I could see Day 1 of the tournament. Once again it will be crucial for Gasquet to inject some pace during the baseline rallies. Put Thiem under pressure and take away some of the precious time for him. That is the recipe to beat him because he's unable to take a big swing at the ball, which is important for creating topspin on the ball and keep a nice depth on your baseline groundstrokes.

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Betting odds & prediction

The line opened Gasquet +140. Took a big dip early on, but recovered to where it opened. I believe we have a sharp/public split in this one. Pro's are well aware of Thiem's struggles in this type of conditions and his losing record to this opponent. They hammered the opener, which recovered thanks to the casual bettors that were probably sure that Christmas came early with Top 5 player sitting at -140 vs a 33-year old veteran that is barely ranked inside the Top 50. The total seems about right at 22.5. Neither is really a big server, but we could still see a tight match with them being pretty evenly matched in these faster playing conditions.

Pick: Richard Gasquet +148

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