Dominic Thiem vs Pablo Cuevas ATP Tips - 6/1/2019

Dominic Thiem vs Pablo Cuevas

4am EST, 1st June 2019

Roland Garros (Paris, France)

Intro

Another day, another pedestrian performance from Dominic Thiem. Before the tournament, he was considered as a most serious contender for the title, besides Nadal/Djokovic duo. He's a very good clay court player. Has a history of beating the best players in the world... But something seems to be off about his game lately. It was shocking to see him on the ropes vs opponents like Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik. Those are two players with 5 appearances in Grand slams. Combined. And if we can say Paul deserves some credit for playing on a very high level in that first round match, Thiem has no excuse for his 2nd round performance.

April and May were a rollercoaster when talking about results and I am curious if his decision to change the coach before the clay court season has something to do with it... Gunther Bresnik was with him since age 9. But, Thiem thought that it is the right time to move on from his longtime coach, known for his old school approach and methods, especially in the area of strength & conditioning. Dominic cited "personal freedom on and off the court" as a main reason for the split. Meaning, he's tired of lifting logs in the woods, training as a gladiator and would like to try some other things in life. We'll see if that mentality will pay off for him. All I know is that we had a similar case not so long ago when Alexander Zverev parted way with Juan Carlos Ferrero because the practices were too hard. Considering that he's playing worse since then, I believe it is a decision that he regrets now.

Matchup

Thiem is facing Pablo Cuevas in the third round. It's someone that always gave him a good scrap in the past. Austrian owns the H2H, but with a very narrow margin (3-2). Most of the matches were pretty tight and even sets on their own were rarely lopsided. Both are feeling most comfortable on clay. Both have some craftiness in their game and some sick shotmaking skills. Both of them use single-handed backhand. Actually, they are very similar in more ways than one, so it's not that surprising that they were always able to produce a quality and competitive tennis match, which I expect to happen once again.

Betting odds & prediction

Knowing their H2H history... Thiem looking very shaky in first two outings... Cuevas not dropping a set so far... All that taking into account, I feel like this line was opened way too wide. I mean, anything can happen. Warmer weather is expected in the next few days and playing somebody who he knows well, might help Dominic to find some rhythm. But from what we've seen so far, I don't think laying this type of juice would be a very smart decision.

Josh' Pick: Pablo Cuevas +6.5 (-115)

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