Denis Shapovalov vs Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Tokyo Picks 10/1/2019

Denis Shapovalov vs Miomir Kecmanovic

2.30 am EST, 1st October 2019

Tokyo, Japan

Hard courts

A very interesting matchup in the first round of ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo. These two players were active last week to start the Asian swing and I must say that both played pretty well. Denis Shapovalov was in Chengdu, where he was eliminated in the semifinals by Pablo Carreno Busta who won the entire thing in the end. Faster conditions in that tournament really suited nicely to his aggressive playing style and it looked like he enjoyed his time on the court. Although, he didn't really face any serious competition. In the first round, he defeated Ricardas Berankis in straight sets. Then played two close, three-set matches vs Bradley Klahn and Egor Gerasimov, before losing to the Spaniard in the semifinals. He actually did really well here last year and is defending a bunch of points. Before losing in the semifinals to Danil Medvedev, he eliminated players like Hyeon Chung, Stan Wawrinka, and Jan Lennard Struff.

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Kecmanovic wasn't as successful as his next opponent last week, but I wouldn't necessarily say that he played much worse. He played at a different event, which was held in Zhuhai. First, he took down Casper Ruud, who arrived from St Petersburg and was not feeling a hundred percent. Long trip, change of the time zones and the humidity took its toll and he had to retire after losing the first set. In the second round, we saw a very quality match between Kecmanovic and Ramos. Young Serbian served for the first set but failed to close it out. The veteran from Spain saw an opportunity and jumped on it, winning the first set in a tie-break. After that, Kecmanovic struggled to perform on the same level that put him in the lead earlier. They were still rallying a lot, but Ramos was the last man standing more often. This is Kecmanovic's debut in the Japanese capital, which is not really surprising. He had a major breakthrough this year, after playing mostly on the challenger tour prior to this season.

Matchup

From what I've seen on the first day of play, the playing conditions are pretty fast in Tokyo. They are more similar to those in Chengdu, where Shapovalov played last week, then those in Zhuhai. But, I don't think that adjusting to these slightly faster courts will be a problem for the young Serbian. He added some weapons to his game this year that made him competitive in faster conditions and helped him become Top 50 player. I'm talking about his serve and forehand, which are way more powerful than a couple of years ago when he was mostly relying on his backhand. That shot is still very solid and will come in handy vs a lefty that loves to open up the court with his cross-court forehand.

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Betting odds & prediction

Not sure why the market is fancying Shapovalov so much in this spot. Whether it's overvaluing him, or completely overlooking Kecmanovic, I'm not completely sure. But the value with the underdog is definitely there. When it comes to quality and form, he is pretty much in the same category as the Canadian. But his ability to counter Shapovalov's favorite shots with success is making this a very good matchup for him. Also, Denis tends to get reckless and over-aggressive at times, which is something you don't need in a playing environment which is already fast enough. On the other side, Kecmanovic is way more solid and thoughtful when it comes to point constructing and giving away free points to his opponent.

Pick: Miomir Kecmanovic +3 (-110)

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