Alexander Bublik vs Jordan Thompson ATP Chengdu Picks 9/26/2019

Alexander Bublik vs Jordan Thompson

1:30 am EST, 26th September 2019

Chengdu, China

Hard courts

Bublik was part of the best match in the tournament so far. Himself and Taylor Harry Fritz played an exciting three-set match, where a couple of points decided the winner in the end. We were able to see a lot of great shots from both players, and a ton of skill at the net, especially from Bublik. You never know what you'll get from this guy. He can either look completely lackadaisical and doesn't show any effort to win the match. Or he can be very inspired and display his vast talent for the tennis game. We were privileged to see this latter version of him in the first round. He was very relaxed and positive most of the time, which is pretty rare. He served 25 aces and 9 double faults, which is not that big of a number, considering that the hits his second serve as strong as the first. He won 83% of the points behind his first serve and 74% when combining both first and second serve.

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He is playing Jordan Thompson in the second round, which should be a pretty evenly matched contest. Aussie got through the first round after a battle with Vasek Pospisil. Watching parts of that match, I was not very impressed by the overall quality of the tennis. Thompson was pretty passive, which is not something you should be doing in such fast conditions. He was leaving his shots short and high, which is perfect for a power hitter, but Vasek was not benefiting from it due to his inaccurate groundstrokes. Jordan had a really good stretch couple months ago on the grass when he played finals and semis in Hertogenbosch and Antalya. But after that, his form dropped quite a bit and he won just 3 out of his last 11 matches.

Matchup

These two players never met before in an official match. But based on what I saw in their respective matches yesterday, I think I've got a pretty good idea on how this one might play out. As I mentioned, these playing conditions are pretty fast. Great for someone that has a big game and gets a bunch of free points behind his serve. Bublik fits that description with 25 aces in his previous match. He is not a grinder and loves the short points. On the other side, Thompson is a solid baseliner that likes to extend the rallies, pick his spots and wait for his opponent to become inpatient and make a mistake. On some other surface, that strategy would probably work against Bublik. But here, his shots are simply too powerful and Thompson won't be able to defend with so much success as he would otherwise. Aussie is also not in the best form at the moment. Usually, his ball has a constant depth, preventing the opponent to step into the court and hit the winner. In the previous match, he was leaving the door open for Pospisil, who was unable to take advantage of those short balls. Bublik will put those away easily.

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Betting odds & prediction

Opening Alex north of +160 in this spot baffled me a little bit. But then again, the market wasn't showing him any respect before the first round match either. Bettors are not trusting him with an extended history of poor effort. But in this tournament, he seems to be positive, liking the playing conditions and feeling well on the court. When he's feeling the ball like he did vs Fritz, he can be very dangerous for any opponent.

Pick: Alexander Bublik +138

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