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World Cup Handicapping: Third Game Differences
by Trevor Whenham - 6/24/2014
When it comes to betting on the World Cup, most people know that there is a big difference between betting on round robin games and those in the round of 16 and beyond. From a betting perspective, though, there are just as significant differences between the first two games of the round robin and the third and final game. By understanding those differences, bettors can avoid costly mistakes, and they can often open up opportunities for real value. Here are four of the biggest differences:
World Cup Elimination Round Betting Trends
by Trevor Whenham - 6/24/2014
As we get ready for the elimination games at the World Cup, it’s a good time to look at some trends that have emerged over the course of the last three World Cups. (Note — I am ignoring the third-place game in all of these trends because I don’t trust the motivation of teams in that game coming off a disappointment in the semifinals).
Ecuador vs France Group E Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Tony Sink - 6/23/2014
If France beats Ecuador in Wednesday's Group E match, it will be the first time it has taken all three group games in a major competition since 1998 - the year it went on to win the World Cup. This talk concerns France coach Didier Deschamps, who captained the side in '98 and who has been trying to play down the increasing hype after his team's 5-2 beating of Switzerland last Friday.
Honduras vs Switzerland Group E Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 6/23/2014
The Swiss know a win is the only surefire way to avoid elimination at the World Cup. They’ll bring an offensive-minded approach to this match and take the game to Honduras. They scored twice against Ecuador and two more again versus France, so conventional wisdom suggests they will find the back of the net at least a few times against an inferior opponent. Look for the Central American outfit to reply in attack having nothing to lose.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Iran Group F Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 6/23/2014
Iran will need a win to help secure progress into the next stages of the World Cup. They haven’t been able to get on the scoreboard yet, but something tells me their patience is going to pay off here, especially against a Bosnia side with nothing to gain and only pride to play for.
Nigeria vs Argentina Group F Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Tony Sink - 6/23/2014
Argentina is going to look for goals. They are brilliant about being an attacking unit in complete ‘go forward’ mode yet never overextending themselves. And while all the talk on this team coming in was for their brilliant attacking footballers, it has been the defense and goalkeeping that has shine brightest so far.
Japan vs Columbia Group C Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 6/22/2014
Colombia have shown no signs of letting up, and I see the South Americans continuing their attacking ways to secure maximum points from the group. Japan, needing a win, will indulge them in this style of play just the same. Colombia can potentially take a loss and not have it affect them, however I think they will do everything to at least get a draw here. Japan need all three, so that could wind up leaving them vulnerable at back as they hunt for goals in this crucial match.
Greece vs Ivory Coast Group C Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Tony Sink - 6/22/2014
Greece can potentially advance from this group despite their stagnant play, and with that I see them finally opening things up a bit and going for a win. They simply need it. Their defensive brand of football will only secure them of an early flight home. Ivory Coast will embrace an up-and-down style here, and the heat in the northeast city of Fortaleza will be a big advantage to the African nation.
Italy vs Uruguay Group D Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 6/22/2014
Whoever wins can guarantee a spot in the next stage of the World Cup. Both teams will be going for three points considering a draw leaves things a bit unclear and unsure of who would benefit from a stalemate. I expect Uruguay to be the aggressor with the likes of Suarez and Cavani up front. Italy will draw its focus on these two and play off the counter, ideally.
Costa Rica vs England Group D Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 6/22/2014
Costa Rica will have their sights set on the top spot in this group. A draw will secure them of that title. England needed Italy to win against the Central Americans just to have a chance at advancement. Now it will be interesting to see both the English’s line-up and the motivation that this squad come onto the pitch with in this match.
Cameroon vs Brazil Group A Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 6/21/2014
Something tells me Brazil are going to take their frustrations of that 0-0 draw out on a Cameroon side with nothing to play for. Brazil will not risk a second place spot in the group, so they’ll be all out for a favorable score should goal differential wind up playing a factor.
Netherlands vs Chile Group B Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 6/21/2014
This match will determine Group B’s winner and second place finisher, as both these teams are through to the Round of 16. Even further, the runner-up will effectively get host Brazil in next round of the World Cup. That is incentive to avoid the runners-up spot.
Australia vs Spain Group B Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Tony Sink - 6/21/2014
This fixture is all about motivation, and conventional wisdom suggests Spain won’t have any. How do they get themselves up for this match? Australia will gladly take a win back home with them as a Brazil souvenir. Australia can attack also knowing there isn’t anything to lose in this match and everyone expects them to lose to a more talented side. Expect a free flowing match with goals.
Croatia vs Mexico Group A Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Tony Sink - 6/21/2014
A draw is enough to see Mexico through, but they must realize that Croatia will be throwing everything at them in attack to thwart any chance of not being one of the two to play in the elimination round. The midfield play of each decides this match. If Luka Modric can continue to orchestrate his Croatian teammates, I think that is the difference maker in this match.
World Cup Betting Trends
by Trevor Whenham - 6/20/2014
With the win by Colombia over Ivory Coast, we have now seen 21 World Cup games, so we are officially a third of the way through the action (there are technically 64 games, but the third-place game is stupid and pointless and I don’t count it). This is a good time, then, to look at what has happened so far and to examine how it compares to what happened in 2010 and 2006. Are there trends that stand out? Or is this just a typical World Cup? Let’s take a look:
United States vs Portugal Group G Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 6/20/2014
You’d have to think the US will be doing more defending, similar to their match against Ghana. Portugal will be looking for redemption following their 4-0 loss to Germany, and thus an attacking mindset will likely be had from the first kick.
South Korea vs Algeria Group H Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Josh Schonwald - 6/20/2014
I think we will see a low scoring match with both teams being cautious here. Neither team wants to lose so I wouldn’t be surprised to see both sit back and avoid risks in their own defensive half. With lots on the line, we’ll see who is willing to risk pushing.
Belgium vs Russia Group H Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Tony Sink - 6/20/2014
Belgium will attack. Russia will defend. Look for Fabio Capello’s men to sit back to begin and focus their game plan on keeping Belgium off the board for the first half hour. The counter attack will be key for the Russians here.
2014 World Cup Handicapping: Surprises and Disappointments
by Trevor Whenham - 6/19/2014
We are, as I write this, 20 games into the World Cup. We certainly can’t complain that it hasn’t been entertaining. There have been great games, amazing performances, and more than a couple of truly shocking results. There has also been some money to be made for bettors — and that is never a bad thing. As we sit almost a third of the way through games it’s a good time to look at the biggest betting surprises and disappointments so far and what they could mean going forward:
Nigeria vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Free World Cup Picks & Odds
by Guy Bruhn - 6/19/2014
Bosnia’s attack will be more prevalent in this match without the ball domination Argentina had against them in the opener. This Nigerian team is a worthy opponents defensively, but I see Bosnia dictating the terms of this match.
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