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Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction, 10/8/2023 Serie A Soccer Pick, Tips and Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 10/3/2023

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Game: Genoa vs AC Milan

Date: Sunday, October 8, 2023

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Genova, Italy

TV: Paramount+

Odds/Point Spread: Genoa (+270) AC Milan (+103)

Stadio Luigi Ferraris is where AC Milan (6-0-1 last season) will take on Genoa (2-2-3 last year) on Sunday. Genoa are priced at +270 while AC Milan are priced at +103. The over/under comes in at 2.5. The expected starting goaltenders are Josep Martinez for Genoa and Mike Maignan for AC Milan.

soccer picks Milan Badelj Genoa predictions best bet odds

Genoa relinquished 11 goals while relinquishing 1.57 goals per 90 minutes, and opposing clubs accounted for 22 SoT against them. They amassed 1 clean sheet, which had them sitting at a percentage of 14.3 over the course of the prior season. Genoa recorded 21 yellow cards last season as well as 1 red card. The Griffin had a ranking of 19th in goals expected with 4.3, and their xGA were sitting at 7.4. For the prior campaign, this team finished with an average of 1.14 pts per contest (8 pts) and also sat at 7th in the league with 9 assists. Their goal differential sat at -1 by way of 10 goals scored and 11 goals conceded. Genoa finished with 12 SVs and also earned a save% of 50.0 over the course of last season.

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AC Milan accounted for 15 goals and this squad's expected goals last season sat at 11.8. The team's goals against/90 min was sitting at 1.14 in addition to 19 saves, and they compiled 3 shut outs. On the year, the Red and Blacks had a save % of 74.1 (27 SoTA), and they also sat at 1st in the league with 18 points. AC Milan had a rank of 3rd in relation to goals against with 8, and the squad's goal differential sat at 7. AC Milan amassed a shut out rate of 42.9 over the course of last season and 18 yellow card warnings. The Red and Blacks finished with an average of 2.6 points per contest while tallying 10 assists and 1 red card.

The man who will defend the goal for Genoa will be Josep Martinez. His GA/90 is 0.99 (63 total goals surrendered) and he has a save percentage of 73.1. Martinez (30-18-16 mark in his career) has accumulated 29 clean sheets, which has him sitting with a 45.3% clean sheet percentage. Martinez has played for a total of 5,714 mins and has accumulated 137 stops in his pro soccer career. The goalkeeper born in Spain has had 201 shots attempted at him in 64 career starts.

Mike Maignan is expected to look after the goal for AC Milan. During his career, Maignan has given up 195 goals and has 500 stops in 205 starting assignments. He has surrendered 0.95 goals per 90 mins while earning a record of 111-45-49. He is the owner of a save % of 74.6 and his clean sheet rate is 40.5%. Maignan has totaled 83 shutouts while seeing 694 shots against him in 18,465 minutes throughout his career.

Mateo Retegui is a member of the squad who should impact this matchup for Genoa. He has 5 assists while accumulating 19 yellow card warnings so far in his pro soccer career. The forward who is from Argentina has accumulated 41 goals scored in 6,666 professional minutes played. Retegui has started 74 contests so far in his pro soccer career while he scores 0.55 goals per 90 mins.

AC Milan has a player in Rafael Leao, who is a thorn in the side of defenses. He scores 0.44 goals per 90 minutes and has started 115 outings in his career. The forward hailing from Portugal has totaled 10,256 mins and has scored 50 goals. He has 20 yellow card cautions thus far in his career and has helped a teammate on a goal 32 times.

Who will win tonight's Serie A game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Genoa (+270)

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