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Italy vs Poland Prediction, 11/15/2020 UEFA Nations League Pick, Tips and Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 11/12/2020

Lukasz Fabianski Poland

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Game: Italy vs Poland

Date: Sunday, November 15, 2020

Location: Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Italy (-140) Poland (+362)

Stadio Olimpico is the venue where Ciro Immobile and Italy (1-3-0 in Nations League) will take on Poland (2-1-1 in Nations League) on Sunday. The goalkeepers protecting the net will be Gianluigi Donnarumma for Italy and Lukasz Fabianski for Poland. The Italians are at -140 while the Polish are priced at +362. The O/U is set at 2.

Italy has been able to control possession for 58.5% of contests. They have committed 53 fouls and have drawn 54 fouls for the tournament. They have attempted 62 shots at their opponents goal with 16 being on target, which comes out to a 25.8% SOT percentage. Italy as a team have earned 3 goals this tournament, which has them 33rd in the UEFA Nations League.

Ciro Immobile is a guy who should impact this matchup for the Italians. Immobile has been in the starting lineup in 260 matches so far in his career and accounts for 0.68 goals per 90 minutes. The forward hailing from Italy has 173 goals scored in 23,053 minutes played. He has accounted for 38 assists while earning 49 yellow card cautions in his career. Another player who should impact this match is Lorenzo Pellegrini, the midfielder representing Italy. Pellegrini has 9,391 mins in 113 starts and has been given 29 yellow cards. He has helped on a goal 22 times during his pro soccer career while he has scored 16 total goals. He currently averages 0.15 goals per 90 minutes so far in his career.

The man who will defend the goal for Italy will be Gianluigi Donnarumma. Donnarumma has played for a total of 16,301 minutes and is sitting with 517 stops during his soccer career. His GA/90 is 1.07 (194 total goals allowed) and he has earned a save percentage of .743. The goalie representing Italy has faced 696 shots attempted against him in 184 career starts. Donnarumma (89-49-44 record in his career) has 60 shutouts, which leaves him with a 32.6% shutout rate.

Poland has tallied 79 fouls in the tournament (2nd in the league) to go along with 69 fouls against them. In the UEFA Nations League, they maintain possession of the ball 48.8% of the time. The Polish average a total of 4 shots on target per 90 while having earned 5 goals to this point. They have been able to connect on 40.0% of their shots out of 40 total shots.

Kamil Jozwiak will need to be on top of his game for Poland. The midfielder born in Poland has totaled 7,282 minutes while scoring 15 goals. He has totaled 15 yellow card warnings so far in his career and has assisted on a goal 9 times. He is currently averaging 0.19 goals per 90 minutes and has been a starter in 80 games in his career. You should also keep an eye on Kamil Glik, the defender representing for Poland. He has accounted for 25 goals in his career while assisting a teammate on a goal 6 different times. Glik has been given 90 yellow card warnings in 31,749 mins (354 starts). His goals per 90 min average in his career is 0.07.

Lukasz Fabianski will reside in front of the goal for Poland. During his pro soccer career, Fabianski has given up 402 goals while totaling 955 saves in 303 starts. He has surrendered 1.33 goals per 90 minutes while he holds a record of 121-63-118. He has earned a save % of .713 and his clean sheet rate sits at 29.4%. Fabianski has earned 89 shutouts while seeing 1,342 shots against him in 27,106 career mins.

Who will win tonight's UEFA Nations League game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Poland (+362)

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