Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Prediction, 4/28/2025 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers

Date: Monday, April 28, 2025

Location: Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, FL

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Lightning (+125) Panthers (-145)

The Florida Panthers (47-31-4) will go up against the Tampa Bay Lightning (47-27-8) at Amerant Bank Arena on Monday in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference first round. Florida leads the series 2-1. The moneyline on this matchup has Tampa Bay at +125 and Florida is at -145. The over/under is 6.5.

The Tampa Bay Lightning were on the wrong end of the scoreboard with a 2-0 defeat against the Panthers in Game 3. Tampa Bay amassed 15 penalty minutes in this game. Moreover, they had 5 power play chances but didn't get a goal. The Lightning didn't have a great showing offensively in the loss. For the game, they went scoreless on the 19 shots they put on goal.

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When discussing scoring goals, the Tampa Bay Lightning have accumulated 292 goals (1st in pro hockey) on the season and have allowed 216. For the season, they have tallied 102 points and their points percentage is .622. Tampa Bay comes into tonight with 232 power play opportunities and they have added 60 goals during those chances, giving them a rate of 25.86%. When at even strength, the Lightning have allowed the opponent to score 178 goals while notching 232 themselves. Tampa Bay has taken 2,341 shots and is the owner of a shooting percentage of 12.5%. The Lightning have had 2,311 shots tried against them and hold a save percentage of .907. Tampa Bay Lightning opponents have totaled 206 power play tries (23rd in the league) and have a total of 38 goals in those attempts.

Patrolling the crease for the game will be Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy has been involved in 540 games throughout his professional hockey career. He has amassed an overall mark of 331-163-35 and he has started in 530 games. Opponents have notched 1,335 goals versus Vasilevskiy in his pro career and his goals against average is 2.84. Vasilevskiy has seen 16,107 shots against him and he has 14,772 saves. His save percentage sits at .917 during his 28,204 mins on the ice. For his professional hockey career, Vasilevskiy has recorded 306 quality starts and his quality starts percentage is at .577.

In Game 3, the Panthers recorded 2 goals out of the 23 shots on goal they pursued. They had 3 power play chances in this game but weren't able to notch a goal.

Florida has taken 2,588 shots (3rd in the league) and has earned a shooting percentage of 9.51%, while allowing the other team 2,146 shots. They have accumulated a penalty kill percentage of 80.74% on the other teams 244 chances on the power play, and their save percentage comes in at 89.6%. They have earned 238 power play opportunities and they have a power play percentage of 23.53%. The Panthers are sitting with 190 goals at even strength and 56 goals (9th in the NHL) while on the power play. They have granted a total of 223 goals to be scored by of a combination of 176 goals at even strength and 47 goals while they were shorthanded. During this campaign, the Florida Panthers are sitting with 246 goals, 98 points, as well as a points percentage of .598.

Across the ice you are going to see Sergei Bobrovsky patrolling the crease. Bobrovsky holds a career mark of 429-243-57 and has played in 754 games. Bobrovsky's percentage of quality starts comes in at 58.0% and he has accumulated 428 quality starting assignments in his NHL career. He has tallied 19,926 stops out of 21,794 shots tried, giving him a percentage of .914. Opponents are averaging 2.77 goals per contest and he has conceded 1,868 goals altogether. He has started in 738 games and has played 40,458 minutes.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+125)

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