Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 3/6/2025 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Thursday, March 6, 2025

Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: WXPX-TV

Odds/Point Spread: Sabres (+120) Lightning (-144)

Amalie Arena is the location where the Tampa Bay Lightning (36-21-4) will play the Buffalo Sabres (24-30-6) on Thursday. The odds on this game have the Sabres at +120 and the Lightning are at -144. The over/under comes in at 6.

The Buffalo Sabres will need a bounce back game after taking a 6-2 loss against the Sharks in the last game they played. Buffalo accumulated 6 penalty minutes in this outing. The Sabres had a rough night on the offensive side of the ice in this loss. They also had 2 power play chances and were able to net 1 goal. In the outing, they tallied a score on 2 out of the 22 shots they looked to score on.

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When playing at even strength, the Sabres have allowed the opponent to score 165 goals while earning 160 when they are on offense. Buffalo Sabres opponents have earned 182 power play opportunities (9th in hockey) and have tallied 42 goals in those chances. When discussing their scoring capabilities, the Buffalo Sabres have accumulated 189 goals (12th in the NHL) this season and have conceded 207. Buffalo has attempted 1,670 shots and holds a shot percentage of 11.3%. For the season, they have recorded 54 points and their points percentage comes in at .450. The Sabres thus far have had 1,735 shots taken against them and hold a save percentage of .881. Buffalo has tallied 173 power play opportunities and they have tallied 29 goals during those advantages, earning them a percentage of 16.76%.

Protecting the goal for this matchup will be Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Luukkonen has played in 144 contests during his hockey career. He has earned a win-loss record of 67-59-14 and got the start in 140 games. The opposition has scored 412 goals against Luukkonen in his pro career and his goals against average per contest is 4.25. Luukkonen has seen 4,140 shots taken against him and he has 3,728 saves. He has a save percentage of .900 in his 5,815 mins in the crease. In his career, Luukkonen has recorded 75 quality starts and his quality starts percentage is .536.

Their last time out, Tampa Bay squared up with the Blue Jackets in an outing where the Lightning got the win by a final score of 6-2. They had 3 attempts on the power play in this matchup and scored 1 out of those attempts. The Lightning scored 6 goals out of the 40 shots on goal they attempted.

On the year, the Tampa Bay Lightning are sitting with 217 goals, 76 points, and a points percentage of .623. They have permitted 159 goals to be scored by of a combination of 130 goals at even strength and 29 goals while they had less men on the ice. The Lightning have earned 171 goals at even strength and 46 goals (5th in the league) while on the power play. They have earned 175 chances on the power play and they have earned a power play percentage of 26.29%. Tampa Bay has tried 1,767 shots (14th in pro hockey) and has accumulated a shot percentage of 12.28%, while allowing their opponents 1,749 shots. They have recorded a penalty kill rate of 81.05% on their opponents 153 power play chances, and their save percentage is 90.9%.

Across the ice you are likely to see Andrei Vasilevskiy in the crease. Vasilevskiy is sitting with a career mark of 322-159-33 and has played in 525 games. Vasilevskiy's quality start percentage sits at 57.9% and he has 298 quality starts in his career. He has accrued 14,423 stops out of 15,725 shots tried, giving him a save % of .917. His opposition is averaging 2.77 goals per contest and he has relinquished 1,302 goals in total. He has been a starter 515 games and his ice time sits at 28,166 mins.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony's Pick: Take Buffalo (+120)

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