Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 4/29/2023 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Saturday, April 29, 2023

Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Maple Leafs (-110) Lightning (-110)

The Tampa Bay Lightning will go up against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Amalie Arena on Saturday in Game 6 of their series. Toronto leads 3-2. The line on this matchup has Toronto at -110 and Tampa Bay is coming in at -110. The total is 7.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look for better times on the ice after their 4-2 defeat against the Lightning in Game 5. Toronto tallied 4 penalty mins for this game. The Maple Leafs didn't have their best offensive outing in this loss. Furthermore, they had 2 attempts on the power play but weren't able to score. For the matchup, they tallied a score on 2 of the 30 shots they put on goal.

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When at even strength, the Maple Leafs have surrendered 175 goals while scoring 214 as an offensive unit. Toronto Maple Leafs opponents have 248 power play opportunities (16th in the league) and have a total of 45 goals in those chances. In the matter of scoring goals, the Toronto Maple Leafs have tallied 278 goals (9th in pro hockey) on the season and have surrendered 220. Toronto has taken 2,628 shots and has a shot percentage of 10.6%. For the season, they have racked up 111 points and their points % is .677. The Maple Leafs have had 2,420 shots tried against them and have a save percentage of .909. Toronto has tallied 246 power play opportunities and they have added 64 goals out of those attempts, earning them a rate of 26.02%.

The man protecting the net in this game is Ilya Samsonov. The opposition has scored 324 goals against Samsonov in his pro career and his goals against average per game is 2.65. Samsonov has taken the ice for 131 games during his pro hockey career. His save percentage currently is .908 for his 7,341 mins in the crease. He has amassed an overall record of 79-32-13 and was named the starter in 119 games. Over the course of his career, Samsonov is sitting with 60 quality starts and his quality starts percentage is at .504. Samsonov has seen 3,517 shots against him and he has 3,193 saves.

In Game 5, Tampa had 2 opportunities on the power play in this one but didn't score a goal. The Lightning scored 4 goals out of the 38 shots on goal they tried.

The Lightning are sitting with 209 goals at even strength and 71 goals (3rd in professional hockey) while on the power play. Tampa Bay has attempted 2,621 shots (13th in the NHL) and has a shot percentage of 10.68%, while allowing the opposition 2,582 shots. During this campaign, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a total of 280 goals, 98 points, in addition to a points percentage of .598. They have allowed 252 goals to be scored by of a combination of 199 goals at even strength and 53 goals while they were shorthanded. They have a tally of 280 opportunities on the power play and they have earned a power play rate of 25.36%. They have earned a penalty kill rate of 79.69% on the other teams 261 power play opportunities, and their save percentage comes in at 90.2%.

Across the ice you are expected to see Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. Opponents are averaging 2.52 goals/game and he has yielded 1,051 goals in total. Vasilevskiy's rate of quality starts sits at 57.3% and he has 238 quality starts in his career. He has made the start in 415 games and his ice time sits at 24,986 minutes. Vasilevskiy has accumulated a career mark of 263-123-28 and has been in net for 425 games. He has a tally of 11,863 saves out of the 12,914 shots attempted against him, giving him a save % of .919.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony's Pick: Take Toronto (-110)

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