Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, 10/14/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators

Date: Thursday, October 14, 2021

Location: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON

TV: TSN5

Odds/Point Spread: Maple Leafs (-165) Senators (+149)

Canadian Tire Centre is the venue where Matt Murray and the Ottawa Senators (23-28-5) will take on the Toronto Maple Leafs (35-14-7) on Thursday. The Maple Leafs open this contest at -165 while the Senators are priced at +149. The O/U opens at 6½.

The Maple Leafs had a rough game after their 3-1 loss to the Canadiens in their previous outing. Their offensive zone starts came in at 63.6% and they had a PDO of 94.6 for this game. They amassed 25 face-off wins at even strength and lost on 24 opportunities to win the face-off. Their Fenwick was 34 and the Fenwick against was 31, giving them a Fenwick percentage of 52.3%. The Corsi for the Maple Leafs was sitting at 46 and the Corsi against when the final whistle blew was 39 which had their Corsi percentage coming in at 54.1%. Toronto amassed 4 minutes in the box in this game. In addition, they had 2 power play attempts but weren't able to score. The Maple Leafs didn't have a great showing offensively in this defeat. For the game, they scored on 1 of the 31 shots they put on net.

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Toronto Maple Leafs opponents had 144 power play tries (28th in the NHL) and scored 31 goals in those chances. The Maple Leafs had 1,558 shots attempted against them and were the owners of a save percentage of .905. Toronto attempted 1,751 shots and held a shot percentage of 10.6%. When playing at even strength, the Maple Leafs allowed the opponent to score 117 goals while having 155. Toronto tallied 155 power play chances and tallied 31 goals out of those attempts, giving them a percentage of 20.00%. For the prior season, they finished with 77 points and their points percentage finished at .688. When discussing their goal scoring prowess, the Toronto Maple Leafs accumulated 186 goals (6th in hockey) over the course of the prior season and allowed 148.

Patrolling the crease for the game will be Petr Mrazek. The opposition has scored 668 goals versus Mrazek in his professional hockey career and his goals against average per game is 2.59. Mrazek has been in goal for 275 games throughout his hockey career. His save percentage is at .911 for his 15,448 minutes guarding the cage. He has compiled a mark of 128-96-31 and was named the starter in 250 games. Over the course of his career, Mrazek has 130 quality starts and his rate for quality starts is .520. Mrazek has had 7,480 shots taken against him and has accrued 6,812 saves.

In their last game, Ottawa played the Maple Leafs in a game where the Senators ended up with the win by a score of 4-3. They had 4 attempts on the power play in this outing but weren't able to score a goal. The Senators converted 4 goals out of the 28 shots on goal they tried. Their PDO was 108 and their oZS percentage was 46.1%. Ottawa earned a 51.8% Corsi rate. These Corsi statistics are telling of the type of game that Ottawa had and it was a good performance overall. Their Fenwick rate was 51.6% with a Fenwick of 33 and the Maple Leafs having accrued a 31 Fenwick at even strength.

Over the course of the season, the Ottawa Senators tallied 155 goals, 51 points, in addition to a points percentage of .455. They allowed 189 goals to be scored by way of 153 goals at even strength and 36 goals while they were shorthanded. The Senators finished with 128 goals at even strength and 27 goals (25th in the NHL) while on the power play. They earned 174 opportunities on the power play and they have earned a power play rate of 15.52%. Ottawa has tried 1,663 shots (16th in pro hockey) and accumulated a shot percentage of 9.32%, while allowing the opposition 1,799 shots. They had a penalty kill rate of 78.95% on the other team's 171 power play chances, and their save percentage came in at 89.5%.

On the other side of the ice you will find Matt Murray between the pipes. Murray is sitting with a career mark of 127-66-20 and has been in net for 226 games. Murray's quality start rate is 52.3% and he has 114 quality starting assignments in his career. He has a tally of 6,031 saves out of the 6,615 shots taken, giving him a rate of .912. Opponents are averaging 2.74 goals/game and he has relinquished 584 goals altogether. He got the starting nod in 218 games and has played 12,770 mins.

Who will win tonight's hockey game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Toronto (-165)

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