Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, 2/18/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Date: Thursday, February 18, 2021

Location: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON

TV: Sportsnet One

Odds/Point Spread: Senators (+280) Maple Leafs (-350)

Frederik Andersen and the Toronto Maple Leafs (11-3-2) play the Ottawa Senators (4-12-1) at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday. The moneyline on this game has the Senators coming in at +280 and the Maple Leafs are at -350. The total opens at 6.5.

The Senators had a good night with a 6-5 win over the Maple Leafs in their previous outing. The Corsi for the Senators was 58 and the Corsi against at the end of this game was 55 meaning they had a Corsi percentage of 51.3%. Their starts in the offensive zone were rated at 45.9% and their PDO rating was 105.4 in this game. Ottawa accumulated 11 minutes in the box for this matchup. The Senators had a solid offensive output and it showed in this victory. Their Fenwick came in at 42 and the Fenwick Against sat at 46, meaning they had a Fenwick rate of 47.7%. They amassed 28 face-off wins at even strength and lost on 25 attempts to control the puck. Moreover, they had 3 attempts on the power play but didn't convert them into a score. For the outing, they tallied a score on 6 out of the 31 shots they launched.

Ottawa Senators opponents have tallied 57 power play tries (5th in hockey) and have tallied 15 goals in those attempts. The Senators have had 531 shots taken against them and have a save percentage of .870. Ottawa has tried 542 shots and has a shooting percentage of 7.4%. When at even strength, the Senators have conceded 54 goals while scoring 32 of their own. Ottawa has 64 power play chances and they have tallied 8 goals out of those chances, earning them a rate of 12.50%. For the year, the have a total of 9 points and their points percentage is sitting at .265. When discussing scoring goals, the Ottawa Senators have notched 40 goals (21st in the league) this season and have surrendered 69.

The player guarding the cage in this matchup is Marcus Hogberg. Opponents have scored 114 goals versus Hogberg in his pro hockey career and his average for goals against per game is 3.48. Hogberg has been in net for 37 contests throughout his professional hockey career. His save percentage is at .893 for his 1,968 mins between the pipes. He has accumulated an overall mark of 7-15-9 and got the start in 31 games. For his professional hockey career, Hogberg is sitting with 12 quality starts and his rate for quality starts is .387. Hogberg has had 1,064 shots against him and has amassed 950 saves.

In their loss to Ottawa, Toronto wound up with a 48.7% Corsi rating. These Corsi stats tell us the story of the kind of game Toronto played and it was a good performance overall. Their Fenwick percentage was 52.3% by way of having a Fenwick of 46 and the Senators finishing with a 42 Fenwick at even strength. Their PDO was 95 and they finished the game with an oZS percentage of 53.8%. The Maple Leafs scored 5 goals of the 38 shots on goal they took. They had 2 chances on the power play in this outing and scored 1 out of those chances.

Toronto has put up 470 shots (8th in the NHL) and has accumulated a shot percentage of 12.34%, while allowing their opponents 446 shots. They have recorded a penalty kill rate of 78.18% on the other teams 55 power play opportunities, and their save percentage comes in at 90.1%. They have a tally of 46 power play chances and they have earned a power play rate of 34.78%. The Maple Leafs have tallied 42 goals at even strength and 16 goals (2nd in hockey) while on the power play. They have permitted 44 goals to be scored by of a combination of 32 goals at even strength and 12 goals while they were shorthanded. So far this year, the Toronto Maple Leafs have 58 goals, 24 points, in addition to a points percentage of .750.

For the opposition you are expected to see Frederik Andersen protecting the goal. Andersen has accumulated a lifetime record of 222-95-47 and has been in net for 383 contests. Andersen's quality start rate comes out to 57.5% and he has accumulated 214 quality starts in his professional career. He has tallied 10,530 saves out of 11,496 shots tried, which gives him a percentage of .916. Opponents are averaging 2.63 goals/game and he has given up 966 goals in total. He has been a starter 372 contests and has been on the ice for 22,016 minutes.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Ottawa (+280)

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