Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 4/29/2021 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Thursday, April 29, 2021

Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Stars (+160) Lightning (-185)

Anton Khudobin and the Dallas Stars (21-16-12) travel to Amalie Arena on Thursday where they'll take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (33-14-2). The odds on this contest have the Stars coming in at +160 and the Lightning are at -185. The over/under has been set at 5.5.

The Stars will look for better times on the ice after their 5-1 defeat against the Hurricanes in their last game. When starting in the offensive zone they came in at 46.2% and their PDO rating was 91.7 in this game. They accrued 25 face-off wins at even strength and were beaten on 21 attempts to win the puck. Their Fenwick came in at 33 and the Fenwick against was 34, giving them a Fenwick rate of 49.3%. The Corsi for the Stars came in at 45 and the Corsi against at the end of this game was 47 which had their Corsi percentage coming in at 48.9%. Dallas had 6 penalty minutes in this matchup. They also had 3 attempts on the power play but weren't able to score. The Stars didn't have a great showing offensively in the loss. For the game, they were able to notch a goal on 1 of the 28 shots they launched.

The Stars have had 1,318 shots tried against them and hold a save percentage of .907. When at even strength, the Stars let the opposition score 95 goals while scoring 103 on the offensive side of the ice. Dallas Stars opponents have totaled 132 power play tries (22nd in professional hockey) and have notched 28 goals in those chances. For the current campaign, they have tallied 54 points and their points percentage is sitting at .551. Dallas has tried 1,480 shots and is the owner of a shooting percentage of 9.3%. In terms of scoring goals, the Dallas Stars have earned 138 goals (13th in the National Hockey League) on the year and have surrendered 123. Dallas has accounted for 146 power play opportunities and they have scored 35 goals out of those tries, giving them a rate of 23.97%.

Protecting the goal for this matchup will be Anton Khudobin. Throughout his time in hockey, Khudobin has 131 quality starts and his rate for quality starts is .580. He has a save percentage of .918 in his 13,637 mins on the ice. Khudobin has seen 6,785 shots against him and has accrued 6,227 saves. The opposition has been able to score 558 goals versus Khudobin in his pro career and his average for goals against per game is 2.46. He has compiled an overall record of 110-86-31 and got the start in 226 games. Khudobin has played in 246 matchups over the course of his pro hockey career.

In their last game, Tampa Bay faced the Blackhawks in a matchup where the Lightning took home the victory by a mark of 7-4. Their PDO was 114 and their oZS percentage was 50.0%. They had 4 power play chances in this outing and earned 1 out of those tries. They had a Fenwick percentage of 51.8% by notching a Fenwick of 29 and the Blackhawks having earned a 27 Fenwick. The Lightning scored 7 goals of the 30 shots on goal they were seeking. Tampa Bay wound up with a 48.0% Corsi rate. This Corsi percentage speaks to the kind of game that Tampa Bay played and it was a good performance overall.

For the year, the Tampa Bay Lightning have tallied 166 goals, 68 points, as well as a points percentage of .694. They have allowed 128 goals to be scored by way of 100 goals at even strength and 28 goals while they were shorthanded. The Lightning are sitting with 128 goals at even strength and 38 goals (3rd in pro hockey) while on the power play. They have recorded 154 opportunities on the power play and they have a power play rate of 24.68%. Tampa Bay has attempted 1,483 shots (11th in pro hockey) and has earned a shot percentage of 11.19%, while allowing the other team 1,407 shots. They have earned a penalty kill rate of 82.50% on their opponents 160 power play opportunities, and their save percentage currently sits at 90.9%.

On the other side of the ice you are expected to see Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. Vasilevskiy has compiled a career mark of 188-81-19 and has been in goal for 298 games. Vasilevskiy's quality start percentage comes out to 56.3% and he has 162 quality starts in his pro career. He has recorded 8,339 stops out of the 9,064 shots attempted, giving him a rate of .920. His opposition is averaging 2.50 goals/game and he has allowed 725 goals altogether. He has been a starter 288 games and has accumulated 17,389 minutes.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Dallas (+160)

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