Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions, Free NHL Picks 3/10/2020

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Scotiabank Arena

Get todays NHL hockey odds on this game.

Frederik Andersen and the Toronto Maple Leafs (35-25-9, 3rd in the Atlantic Division) play the Tampa Bay Lightning (43-20-6, 2nd in the Atlantic Division) at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday, March 10, 2020. The Lightning open this game at -117 while the Maple Leafs are coming in at +106. The O/U is set at 6.5. The Lightning are covering 61.2% of the time, having gone 41-26 SU. The Maple Leafs are covering 50.0% of the time, going 34-34 straight up.

The Tampa Bay Lightning had a rough game after their 5 - 4 loss against the Detroit Red Wings their last time out. The Lightning had a good offensive outing and it showed in the loss. While out there on the ice, they scored on 4 out of the 37 shots they tried. In addition, they had 3 power play attempts and were able to score 1 goal out of those opportunities. Tampa Bay had a total of 6 penalty mins for this outing. The Corsi for the Lightning sat at 53 and the Corsi against was 42 which means they earned a Corsi percentage of 55.8%. Their Fenwick sat at 39 while the Fenwick against was 33, which means they had a rate of 54.2%. They took 19 face-off wins and lost 23 of all total face-offs. Their offensive zone starts came in at 53.6% and they had a PDO of 98.7 for this matchup. In discussing stats from the opponent, the Detroit Red Wings racked up a total of 28 shots. They finished with 6 minutes in the box and they earned a total of 3 power play attempts.

Useful Team Statistics

The Lightning have 92 total points this season, which ranks them 2nd in the NHL. They are 1st in the league in goals scored with 242 while they've given up 192 goals, ranking them 22nd overall. They have had 207 power play opportunities and have scored 49 goals on those chances for a percentage of 24%. That is 5th in the NHL. The Lightning have allowed 226 power play opportunities and have given up 41 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 82%, putting them 12th in the league when short-handed. They average 31 shots per game and as a team shoot 11.29% for the season. They allow 31 shots to their opposition per contest and have a team save percentage of 91%. That puts them 9th in the league in stopping the puck.

The Toronto Maple Leafs faced off against the Anaheim Ducks in an outing where the Maple Leafs ended up taking the loss by a final score of 2 - 1. In this game, Toronto wound up with a 49.4% Corsi rating. They got there by having a Corsi of 44 while their opponent had a Corsi of 45. Their Fenwick percentage came in at 48.5% by way of having a Fenwick of 32 and the Ducks having earned a 34 Fenwick. These Corsi stats tell us the story of the kind of game Toronto played and you can safely assume that they'll look to improve in their next outing. They had a PDO of 96.2 and they earned an oZS percentage of 53.6%. The Maple Leafs scored 1 goal of the 31 shots on goal they were seeking. They had 3 power play attempts in this one but weren't able to finish one of them with a goal. Concerning the opposition, the Ducks had 2 power play chances but were not able to score a goal. Toronto conceded 28 shots on goal and the Ducks had a total of 11 penalty minutes.

Useful Team Statistics

The Maple Leafs are 12th in the NHL with a total of 79 points this year. They have 43 power play goals on 190 opportunities for a percentage of 23%. That ranks them 7th in the league as a power play unit. They've allowed 189 power play opportunities and have given up 43 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 77%. That is 22nd in the NHL. As a team, the Maple Leafs are 2nd in the league with 235 goals scored while they've given up 221 goals, which is 4th overall. They average 33 shots per contest and have a team shooting percentage of 10.37%. As a team they give up 32 shots per game and have a save percentage of 90%. That is 22nd in the NHL.

Advanced Statistics

Tampa Bay is 5th in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 52.1%, as they've attempted 3,284 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 3,015 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage is 51.5% as they have 2,456 attempts while they have given up 2,317 shots on the defensive end. That ranks them 6th in the league. The Lightning start possessions in the offensive zone 51.6% of the time, which is 5th in the league, while their defensive zone percentage is at 48.4% for the season. That is 27th overall in the NHL. They have 1,617 face-off wins compared to 1,599 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 50.3%. That ranks them 11th in the league. On defense Tampa Bay has 1,538 hits and they have blocked 698 shots from the opposition, putting them 28th overall.

Advanced Statistics

The Maple Leafs are 16th in the league in starting possessions in the offensive zone, doing so 50% of the time. Their defensive zone percentage is at 50% for the season, which is 16th in the NHL. They have 1,687 face-off wins compared to 1,488 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 53.1%. That is 3rd in the league. On defense Toronto has 1,111 hits and they have blocked 765 shots from the opposition, which is 21st in the league. Toronto is 7th in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 51.9% as they've attempted 3,606 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 3,340 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage of 51.2% ranks 9th as they have 2,702 attempts while they have given up 2,575 shots on the defensive end.

Who will win tonight's Lightning/Maple Leafs NHL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Tampa Bay

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