Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Prediction, 9/11/2020 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders

Date: Friday, September 11, 2020

Location: Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB

TV: USA

Odds/Point Spread: Lightning (-154) Islanders (+130)

Total/Over-Under: 5

Rogers Place is the venue where Semyon Varlamov and the New York Islanders will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday in Game 3 of their series. The Lightning open this matchup at -154 while the Islanders are priced at +130. The over/under opens at 5. The Lightning cover 60.3% of the time, having gone 41-27 SU. The Islanders cover 49.2% of the time, going 32-33 straight up.

The Lightning had a good night with a 2 - 1 victory over the Islanders in Game 2 when Nikita Kucherov scored the game-winner in the final seconds. The Lightning had an offensive game that was below their expectations in the victory. For the matchup, they earned a goal on 2 out of the 22 shots they looked to score on. In addition, they had 3 power play attempts but weren't able to net one. Tampa Bay had a total of 6 penalty minutes in this matchup. The Corsi for the Lightning sat at 40 and the Corsi against was 45 which gave them a Corsi percentage of 47.1%. Their Fenwick was 26 and the Fenwick against sat at 36, giving them a Fenwick percentage of 41.9%. They won 11 face-off wins at even strength and lost 25 tries to control the puck. Their offensive zone starts were rated at 66.2% and they had a PDO of 108.8 in this one. Regarding their opponent, the New York Islanders earned a total of 29 shots. They finished with a total of 8 minutes in the box and they earned a total of 2 power play opportunities.

In net for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy from London, Ontario. He is 25 years old and has played 3,122 mins defending the net this season. Vasilevskiy is surrendering 2.56 GAA which ranks him 9th in the Eastern Conference and 14th in the NHL among goalies. For the year, he has surrendered 133 goals. He's earned a save % of .917 which ranks him 7th in the Eastern Conference. So far this season, they have scored a total of 243 goals which is good for 1st in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the NHL. Their goal differential is +49, which is good for 2nd in the NHL. The Lightning have a total of 92 points, which is good for 3rd in the NHL and 2nd in the conference. Regarding shots at the opposition, they have a total of 2,176 which is good for 9th in the East and 18th in the NHL. As a unit, Tampa Bay has earned a total of 1,562 hits which has them averaging 22.3 per game. They have a total of 707 blocks for this season.

In Game 2 New York wound up with a 51.7% Corsi rating. They got there by having a Corsi of 61 and they gave up a Corsi of 57. Their Fenwick rate came in at 48.8% by notching a Fenwick of 41 and the Lightning having earned a 43 Fenwick at even strength. This Corsi percentage speaks to the kind of game that New York had and the stats tell us that they didn't play well overall. They had a PDO at even strength of 97.5 and they'll go home having earned an oZS percentage of 48.1%. The Islanders converted 1 goal of the 29 shots on goal they took. They had 3 power play opportunities in this one but weren't able to notch a goal. Regarding their opponent, the Lightning had 2 power play attempts but weren't able to take advantage of it. New York conceded 32 shots on goal and the Lightning had 6 penalty minutes.

In goal for New York is Semyon Varlamov who is having a marginal season by surrendering 2.62 GAA and that ranks him 11th in the Eastern Conference and 18th in the NHL among goaltenders. In the 2,517 minutes he has been on the ice this season, he's allowed 110 goals. He has a save % of .914, which places him at 12th in the Eastern Conference and 26th in the NHL among goaltenders. In discussing goal differential, they are ranked 10th in the Eastern Conference and 19th in the NHL with -1. They have a total of 189 goals for the season which ranks them 13th in the Eastern Conference. New York has a team save % of .911 which currently has them sitting 8th in the NHL, which means they are a tough group to score against. They have a team shooting percentage of 9.4% ranking them 11th in the conference.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-154)

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