Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars Prediction, 9/28/2020 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars

Date: Monday, September 28, 2020

Location: Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Lightning (-162) Stars (+148)

Total/Over-Under: 5

Anton Khudobin and the Dallas Stars host the Tampa Bay Lightning at Rogers Place on Monday, September 28, 2020 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Stars open this matchup at +148 while the Lightning are coming in at -162. The O/U opens at 5. The Lightning are covering 60.3% of the time, having gone 41-27 SU. The Stars are covering 52.2% of the time, going 35-32 straight up.

The Lightning were on the losing side of the ice with a 3 - 2 loss against the Stars in double overtime of Game 5. The Lightning could have played much better offensively in the loss. For the game, they finished 2 out of the 41 shots they looked to score on. In addition, they had 1 power play chance but didn't net one. Tampa Bay had a total of 4 penalty mins for this game. The Corsi for the Lightning was 87 and the Corsi against was 63 giving them a Corsi percentage of 58.0%. Their Fenwick was 54 and the Fenwick against sat at 46, which means they earned a Fenwick percentage of 54.0%. They took 39 face-off wins and lost 37 of all total face-offs. The offensive zone starts for them were rated at 61.4% and they had a PDO of 95.3 in this game. Regarding their opponent, the Dallas Stars put up 33 shots. They had 2 penalty minutes and they earned 2 power play chances.

The man in net for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy from London, Ontario. He is 25 years old and has racked up 3,122 mins minding the goal for the season. Vasilevskiy is surrendering 2.56 goals per contest which has him sitting 9th among Eastern Conference goalies and 14th among goaltenders in the NHL. Over the course of this year, he has surrendered 133 goals. He holds a save percentage of .917 which has him sitting 7th among Eastern Conference goalies. Thus far in the season, they have racked up a total of 243 goals which is good for 1st in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the league. Their goal differential is +49, putting them at 2nd in the league. The Lightning currently have a total of 92 pts, which is good for 3rd in the league and 2nd in the East. In terms of shots at the opposing goalie, they currently have a total of 2,176 which is good for 9th in the Eastern Conference and 18th in the league. As a unit, Tampa Bay currently has a total of 1,562 hits which has them averaging 22.3 per contest. They currently have a total of 707 blocks for the season.

In Game 5 Dallas wound up with a 42.0% Corsi rating. They got to that percentage by earning a Corsi of 63 and they gave up a Corsi of 87. Their Fenwick percentage was 46.0% by way of having a Fenwick of 46 and the Lightning having a 54 Fenwick. These Corsi stats speak to the kind of game that Dallas had and you could say that they played like a middle of the road team. They had a PDO at even strength of 104.7 and they'll go home having earned an oZS percentage of 38.6%. The Stars converted 3 goals out of the 33 shots on goal they attempted. They had 2 power play attempts in this game but were not able to net one. As for their opponent, the Lightning had 1 power play attempt but didn't put the puck in goal. Dallas allowed 41 shots on goal and the Lightning racked up a total of 4 minutes in the box.

In net for Dallas is Anton Khudobin who is having a marginal year by giving up 2.22 goals per contest and that has him ranked 3rd among West goalies and 5th among goaltenders in the NHL. In the 1,677 minutes he's been on the ice, he has given up 62 goals. He holds a save % of .930, which ranks him 1st among West goalies and 3rd among goaltenders in the NHL. With reference to goal differential, they rank 8th in the Western Conference and 17th in the league with +4. They currently have a total of 178 goals for the season which ranks them 14th in the West. Dallas has a team save % of .920 which has them sitting 2nd in the league, which means chances to score may be limited. They have a team shooting percentage of 8.4% putting them at 14th in the Western Conference.

Who will win tonight's NHL game ATS?

Guy's Pick: Take Dallas (+148)

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