Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars Prediction, 9/25/2020 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars

Date: Friday, September 25, 2020

Location: Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Lightning (-182) Stars (+146)

Total/Over-Under: 5.5

Rogers Place is the site where Anton Khudobin and the Dallas Stars will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning on Friday in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Tampa Bay leads the series 2-1. The Lightning open this game at -182 while the Stars are priced at +146. The O/U opens at 5.5. The Lightning are covering 60.3% of the time, having gone 41-27 SU. Dallas is covering 52.2% of the time, going 35-32 straight up.

The Lightning went home feeling good after earning a 5 - 2 win over the Stars in Game 3. The Lightning had a impressive offensive performance in this victory. For the game, they earned a goal on 5 out of the 32 shots they looked to score on. They also had 4 power play chances and netted 1 goal out of those attempts. Tampa Bay ended up with 36 penalty mins in this outing. The Corsi for the Lightning sat at 38 and the Corsi against was 31 which means they had a Corsi percentage of 55.1%. Their Fenwick sat at 30 while the Fenwick against was 22, which means they earned a rate of 57.7%. They won 15 face-off wins and were beaten on 17 attempts to control the puck. The offensive zone starts for them came in at 75.8% and they had a PDO at even strength of 109.1 for this game. With regard to the opposition's stats, the Dallas Stars earned a total of 24 shots. They had 26 minutes in the box and they tallied 4 power play opportunities.

Protecting the net for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy from London, Ontario. He is 25 years old and has totaled 3,122 minutes defending the net for the season. Vasilevskiy is surrendering 2.56 goals per game which has him ranked 9th among Eastern Conference goaltenders and 14th in the NHL. During this season, he's surrendered 133 goals. He holds a save % of .917 which has him ranked 7th among Eastern Conference goaltenders. During the season thus far, they have earned a total of 243 goals which is good for 1st in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the league. Their goal differential is +49, which is good for 2nd in the league. The Lightning have earned a total of 92 points, which is good for 3rd in the league and 2nd in the conference. In connection with shots on goal, they have earned a total of 2,176 which is good for 9th in the Eastern Conference and 18th in the league. As a group, Tampa Bay has collected a total of 1,562 hits which has them averaging 22.3 per game. They have earned a total of 707 blocks for this year.

In Game 3 Dallas earned a 44.9% Corsi rating. That percentage was had by earning a Corsi of 31 and they surrendered a Corsi of 38. Their Fenwick percentage was 42.3% with a Fenwick of 22 and the Lightning having a 30 Fenwick. These Corsi stats tell us the story of the kind of game Dallas had and it could be said that this team has had better games. Their PDO was 90.9 and they had an oZS percentage of 24.2%. The Stars notched 2 goals out of the 24 shots on goal they took. They had 4 power play chances in this one but weren't able to notch a goal. On the other side of the ice, the Lightning had 4 power play chances and ended up scoring 1 goal. Dallas allowed 32 shots on goal and the Lightning earned 36 penalty mins.

In net for Dallas is Anton Khudobin who is having a marginal season by giving up 2.22 goals per game and that has him ranked 3rd among Western Conference goalies and 5th in the NHL among goaltenders. In the 1,677 minutes he's played this year, he has surrendered 62 goals. He has a save percentage of .930, which has him sitting 1st among Western Conference goalies and 3rd in the NHL among goaltenders. With regard to goal differential, they are sitting 8th in the Western Conference and 17th in the league with +4. They have compiled a total of 178 goals for this season which puts them at 14th in the West. Dallas has a save % as a team of .920 which has them sitting 2nd in the league, which means chances to score may be limited. They have a shooting percentage of 8.4% which puts them at 14th in the conference.

Who will win tonight's NHL game ATS?

Guy's Pick: Take Dallas (+146)

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