Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars Prediction, 9/23/2020 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars

Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Location: Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB

TV: NBCSN

Odds/Point Spread: Lightning (-148) Stars (+134)

Total/Over-Under: 5

Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning head to Rogers Place on Wednesday where they'll meet the Dallas Stars in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Stars open this contest at +134 while the Lightning are coming in at -148. The total has been set at 5. The Lightning cover 60.3% of the time, having gone 41-27 SU. The Stars cover 52.2% of the time, going 35-32 straight up.

The Lightning will head into this game feeling good after earning a 3 - 2 win over the Stars in Game 2. The Lightning had a middle of the road offensive performance in this victory. While out there on the ice, they finished 3 of the 31 shots they attempted. Furthermore, they had 4 power play attempts and were able to notch 2 goals out of those chances. Tampa Bay had 14 penalty minutes for this game. The Corsi for the Lightning sat at 48 and the Corsi against was 38 telling us they have a Corsi percentage of 55.8%. Their Fenwick was 32 while the Fenwick against was 20, giving them a Fenwick percentage of 61.5%. They took 26 face-off wins and lost 24 of the face-offs. Their offensive zone starts came in at 45.2% and they had a PDO of 98.1 for this game. In discussing stats from the opponent, the Dallas Stars tallied 29 shots. They finished with a total of 12 penalty mins and they tallied 5 power play attempts.

Protecting the net for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy from London, Ontario. He is 25 years old and has played 3,122 mins in net this year. Vasilevskiy is giving up 2.56 goals per game which has him sitting 9th among East goalies and 14th in the NHL among goalies. Over the course of this year, he's allowed 133 goals. He's earned a save % of .917 which has him sitting 7th among East goalies. So far this year, they have converted a total of 243 goals which has them at 1st in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the league. Their goal differential is +49, which puts them at 2nd in the league. The Lightning have earned a total of 92 points, which has them at 3rd in the league and 2nd in the East. Regarding shots on goal, they have earned a total of 2,176 which has them at 9th in the East and 18th in the league. As a unit, Tampa Bay has compiled a total of 1,562 hits which means they have an average of 22.3 per contest. They have earned a total of 707 blocks for the season.

In Game 2 Dallas had a 44.2% Corsi rating. They got there by having a Corsi of 38 and they conceded a Corsi of 48. Their Fenwick rate came in at 38.5% with a Fenwick of 20 and the Lightning having a 32 Fenwick at even strength. These Corsi stats tell us the story of the kind of game Dallas had and you could say that they have had better days on the ice. They had a PDO at even strength of 101.9 and they finished the game with an oZS percentage of 54.8%. The Stars converted 2 goals out of the 29 shots on goal they tried. They had 5 power play opportunities in this outing and converted 1 out of those opportunities. As for their opponent, the Lightning had 4 power play opportunities and ended up scoring 2 goals. Dallas allowed 31 shots on goal and the Lightning earned 14 penalty mins.

In goal for Dallas is Anton Khudobin who is having an average year by allowing 2.22 GAA and that places him 3rd among West goalies and 5th in the NHL among goalies. In the 1,677 mins he's played this season, he has allowed 62 goals. His save percentage is .930, which has him sitting 1st among West goalies and 3rd in the NHL among goalies. When looking at goal differential, they are ranked 8th in the Western Conference and 17th in the league with +4. They currently have a total of 178 goals for this season which is good for 14th in the Western Conference. Dallas has a team save % of .920 which currently has them sitting 2nd in the league, which means chances to score may be limited. They have a team shooting percentage of 8.4% ranking them 14th in the Western Conference.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-148)

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