Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 9/26/2020 NHL Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Saturday, September 26, 2020

Location: Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Stars (+141) Lightning (-175)

Total/Over-Under: 5

Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning play the Dallas Stars at Rogers Place on Saturday, September 26, 2020 in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Tampa leads the series 3-1. The Lightning open this game at -175 while the Stars are coming in at +141. The O/U is set at 5. The Stars are covering 52.2% of the time, having gone 35-32 SU. Tampa Bay is covering 60.3% of the time, going 41-27 straight up.

The Stars will look to clean up some issues after taking a 5 - 4 overtime defeat to the Lightning in Game 4. The Stars had a solid offensive outing in the loss. For the matchup, they scored on 4 of the 30 shots they looked to score on. In addition, they had 3 power play attempts but weren't able to score. Dallas earned 10 penalty minutes in this game. The Corsi for the Stars sat at 45 and the Corsi against was 56 giving them a Corsi percentage of 44.6%. Their Fenwick was 32 while the Fenwick against sat at 38, which means they earned a Fenwick percentage of 45.7%. They took 37 face-off wins at even strength and lost 23 attempts to control the puck. Their offensive zone starts came in at 47.7% and they had a PDO of 107.4 in this one. When it comes to their opponent, the Tampa Bay Lightning earned 35 shots. They had 8 penalty minutes and they notched 4 power play chances.

The man in the crease for Dallas is Anton Khudobin from Ust-Kamenogorsk, USSR. He is 33 years old and has been on the ice a total of 1,677 minutes protecting the net this season. Khudobin is surrendering an average of 2.22 goals per contest which has him sitting 3rd among Western Conference goaltenders and 5th in the NHL among goalies. Over the course of this year, he's given up 62 goals. He has a save percentage of .930 which has him sitting 1st among Western Conference goaltenders. So far this season, they have scored a total of 178 goals which ranks them 14th in the conference and 29th in the league. Their goal differential is +4, ranking them 17th in the league. The Stars have compiled a total of 82 points, which ranks them 10th in the league and 5th in the Western Conference. in respect to shots at the opposition, they have compiled a total of 2,113 which ranks them 11th in the Western Conference and 24th in the league. As a team, Dallas has collected a total of 1,449 hits which means they have an average of 21 per game. They have compiled a total of 857 blocks for this season.

In Game 4 Tampa Bay had a 55.4% Corsi rating. They wound up with that percentage by having a Corsi of 56 while they allowed a Corsi of 45. Their Fenwick percentage was 54.3% with a Fenwick of 38 and the Stars ending the game with a 32 Fenwick. These Corsi statistics are telling of the type of game that Tampa Bay played and it was a good performance overall. They had a PDO of 92.6 and they earned an oZS percentage of 52.3%. The Lightning converted 5 goals of the 35 shots on goal they attempted. They had 4 power play opportunities in this outing and were able to notch 3 out of those tries. As for the opposition, the Stars had 3 power play attempts but weren't able to put the puck in the net. Tampa Bay allowed 30 shots on goal and the Stars racked up a total of 10 penalty mins.

In goal for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy who is having an ok year by allowing 2.56 goals per contest and that ranks him 9th among East goalies and 14th in the NHL among goalies. In the 3,122 mins he has played, he's given up 133 goals. His save percentage is .917, which places him at 7th among East goalies and 18th in the NHL among goalies. When looking at goal differential, they are ranked 2nd in the Eastern Conference and 2nd in the league with +49. They currently have a total of 243 goals for the year which ranks them 1st in the conference. Tampa Bay has a team save percentage of .910 which currently has them ranked 9th in the league, meaning there should be some opportunities to score. They are shooting 11.2% which puts them at 1st in the conference.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Dallas (+141)

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