2019 New York Islanders Odds to win Stanley Cup with Expert Predictions

Every year in sports there are surprises - teams that are somehow quite a bit better than you could ever reasonably have expected them to be. And last year the New York Islanders certainly fit into that category. The team had lost their franchise player, John Tavares, to free agency. They had a goaltending duo that raised some questions. They were young and questionably talented. And they had just hired their third head coach since the start of the 2017 season.

But they somehow overcame all that.

They started off playing solid hockey, and they never faltered. Led by being the only team in the league that allowed fewer than 200 goals, they finished second in the Metropolitan Division - five or six spots higher than many expected. And they weren't done there. They swept the Penguins in the first round of the playoffs. But all good things must come to an end, and they lost to the Hurricanes in the sweep in the second round. Barry Trotz had been hired to coach the team after bizarrely losing his job in Washington right after a Cup win. By pulling out pretty much every ounce of potential there was to pull out of this team, Trotz proved just how good he is. Now he has to do it again.

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New York Islanders Offseason Moves

It was mostly a successful offseason, though there is one glaring exception. First the good parts. The team had a whole lot of contracts to deal with - important ones - and they mostly did so. Anders Lee signed for seven years, with Brock Nelson re-upping for six, and Jordan Eberle for five. That's a good portion of the core taken care of through their primes. RFAs Michael Dal Colle and Joshua Ho-Sang were brought back on show-me deals as well, so they have lots left to prove, and Anthony Beauvillier signed a two-year bridge deal. They obviously like what they had, so they mostly kept it. They aren't the most attractive destination for players, so they get real credit for doing this.

Now for the one glaring area of concern. Robin Lehner was a major revelation in net last year, playing so well that he was a Vezina finalist. He had struggled with mental and substance issues in the past but moved past those last year in a big way, and it seemed like he really fit in Buffalo. But now he is gone, signing a one-year deal in Chicago. In his place is Semyon Varlamov. He has been a very capable goalie, but the last couple of years his numbers have suggested that he was on the wrong side of his prime. And the worst part of the exchange of goalies is the money - the $5 million per year for four years is the same amount of money Lehner is making for one year in Chicago, so it seems impossible to believe that they couldn't have kept their breakout star around somehow.

The draft was unremarkable. They had only the 23rd pick, and they selected Swedish winger Simon Holmstrom, who won't be helping the team in any hurry. All in all, it was a solid offseason, but not a great one. They kept most of what they had, but they didn't do much to improve at time when the middle tier of the Eastern Conference has become a bit of an arms race.

New York Islanders NHL Outlook

It's going to come down to the defense again. It's not a stellar unit on paper, but it sure worked last season. And, given that this is virtually the same team as last season, it is going to have to work again if this team is going to have any success at all. This team isn't going to blow people out offensively, and there isn't a lot of offensive upside for them this year compared to last. They will have to be disciplined and hope that Thomas Greiss can be as good as a starting goalie this year as he was as a well-used backup last year if they want to come close to what they did last year.

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New York Islanders Schedule

Starting Nov. 16 the Islanders play five of six on the road, including a tough California road trip. And their lone home game sandwiched in there is against Pittsburgh as the back half of a home and home. That is a very tough stretch of games for the team. And if they are vulnerable by that point, it could really be the turning point for this season.

New York Islanders NHL Futures Odds

At +2500 to win the Stanley Cup, the Islanders are one of four teams tied for the 15th choice to win it all. They are on the fringe of playoff contention by that measure. Similarly, they are the co-seventh choice to win the Eastern Conference at +1200 alongside the Devils. They are tied with Pittsburgh as the third choice to win the Metropolitan Division at +500, trailing the Capitals and Hurricanes. Their season point total is set at 92.5 with balanced action. They are -160 to make the playoffs, compared to +140 to miss them.

2019-20 New York Islanders Predictions

I respect what they did last year, and I respect that they were mostly able to keep personnel on board from last season. But they did nothing to improve in a year that non-playoff teams New Jersey, Florida and the Rangers all got significantly better in an Eastern Conference that was already very challenging. Just treading water won't be good enough for this team this year, and I don't see how they are going to improve significantly. I feel like they are more likely to miss the playoffs than make them. Quite a bit more likely in my eyes, in fact.

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