Toronto Maple Leafs vs Washington Capitals NHL Picks & Predictions 10/16/2019

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Capital One Arena

Get todays NHL hockey odds on this game.

Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals (3-2-2, 3rd in the Metropolitan Division) play the Toronto Maple Leafs (3-2-1, 3rd in the Atlantic Division) at Capital One Arena on Wednesday, October 16, 2019. The Capitals open this contest at -115 while the Maple Leafs are priced at -105. The over/under has been set at 6. The Maple Leafs cover 50.0% of the time, having gone 3-3 SU. Washington covers 42.9% of the time, going 3-4 straight up.

The Toronto Maple Leafs were on the right side of the scoreboard with a 5 - 2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings in their previous contest. The Maple Leafs had a solid offensive performance and it showed in this win. In their game, they finished 5 of the 41 shots they put on net. Additionally, they had 3 power play chances but weren't able to score. Toronto earned 2 penalty minutes in this game. The Corsi for the Maple Leafs was 60 and the Corsi against was 31 which gave them a Corsi percentage of 65.9%. Their Fenwick was 38 and the Fenwick against was 20, which tells us they had a Fenwick percentage of 65.5%. They took 25 face-off wins and were beaten on 19 of all total face-offs. Their offensive zone starts were rated at 46.4% and they had a PDO at even strength of 104.4 for this game. In terms of their opponent's stats, the Detroit Red Wings tallied a total of 27 shots. They had 6 penalty minutes and they earned 1 power play attempt.

Useful Team Statistics

The Maple Leafs have 7 total points this season, which ranks them 12th in the NHL. They are 2nd in the league in goals scored with 24 while they've given up 21 goals, ranking them 8th overall. They have had 22 power play opportunities and have scored 5 goals on those chances for a percentage of 23%. That is 15th in the NHL. The Maple Leafs have allowed 18 power play opportunities and have given up 4 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 78%, putting them 20th in the league when short-handed. They average 35 shots per game and as a team shoot 11.37% for the season. They allow 31 shots to their opposition per contest and have a team save percentage of 89%. That puts them 21st in the league in stopping the puck.

The Washington Capitals faced off against the Colorado Avalanche in a matchup where the Capitals ended up taking the loss by a mark of 6 - 3. For this matchup, Washington earned a 51.1% Corsi rating. They got there by having a Corsi of 46 while their opponent earned a Corsi of 44. Their Fenwick rate was 50.0% with a Fenwick of 31 and the Avalanche ending the game with a 31 Fenwick at even strength. This Corsi rating is telling of the kind of game that Washington had and it tells us they had an average game overall. Their PDO was 84.9 and they had an oZS percentage of 68.5%. The Capitals notched 3 goals of the 32 shots on goal they were seeking. They had 2 power play chances in this game but weren't able to finish one of them with a goal. In discussing their opponent, the Avalanche had 4 power play attempts and took advantage of the situation by scoring 1 goal on that attempt. Washington gave up 25 shots on goal and the Avalanche racked up 11 penalty mins.

Useful Team Statistics

The Capitals are 6th in the NHL with a total of 8 points this year. They have 5 power play goals on 27 opportunities for a percentage of 19%. That ranks them 19th in the league as a power play unit. They've allowed 25 power play opportunities and have given up 4 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 84%. That is 12th in the NHL. As a team, the Capitals are 8th in the league with 22 goals scored while they've given up 23 goals, which is 4th overall. They average 30 shots per contest and have a team shooting percentage of 10.43%. As a team they give up 27 shots per game and have a save percentage of 88%. That is 25th in the NHL.

Advanced Statistics

Toronto is 1st in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 57.1%, as they've attempted 295 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 222 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage is 54.3% as they have 204 attempts while they have given up 172 shots on the defensive end. That ranks them 3rd in the league. The Maple Leafs start possessions in the offensive zone 47.5% of the time, which is 21st in the league, while their defensive zone percentage is at 52.5% for the season. That is 11th overall in the NHL. They have 142 face-off wins compared to 127 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 52.8%. That ranks them 5th in the league. On defense Toronto has 68 hits and they have blocked 50 shots from the opposition, putting them 22nd overall.

Advanced Statistics

The Capitals are 10th in the league in starting possessions in the offensive zone, doing so 52.4% of the time. Their defensive zone percentage is at 47.6% for the season, which is 22nd in the NHL. They have 169 face-off wins compared to 150 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 53%. That is 4th in the league. On defense Washington has 110 hits and they have blocked 61 shots from the opposition, which is 9th in the league. Washington is 4th in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 53.1% as they've attempted 274 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 242 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage of 53% ranks 6th as they have 204 attempts while they have given up 181 shots on the defensive end.

Who will win tonight's Maple Leafs/Capitals NHL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Washington

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