Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings NHL Game Picks 10/12/2019

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Little Ceasars Arena

Get todays NHL hockey odds on this game.

Little Ceasars Arena is the venue where Dylan Larkin and the Detroit Red Wings (3-1-0, 2nd in the Atlantic Division) will play the Toronto Maple Leafs (2-2-1, 5th in the Atlantic Division) on Saturday. The Maple Leafs open this matchup at -286 while the Red Wings are coming in at +175. The over/under has been set at 6.5. The Maple Leafs are covering 40.0% of the time, having gone 2-3 SU. Detroit is covering 75.0% of the time, going 3-1 straight up.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to clean up some issues after taking a 7 - 3 defeat against the Tampa Bay Lightning their last time out. The Maple Leafs had a middle of the road offensive performance in this defeat. In their game, they scored on 3 of the 28 shots they looked to score on. They also had 2 power play opportunities and notched 1 goal out of those chances. Toronto earned 6 penalty mins in this outing. The Corsi for the Maple Leafs was 47 and the Corsi against was 40 which gave them a Corsi percentage of 54.0%. Their Fenwick was 29 and the Fenwick against was 31, which tells us they had a rate of 48.3%. They earned 24 face-off wins at even strength and lost 17 tries to control the puck. Their starts in the offensive zone came in at 38.1% and they had a PDO of 88.8 in this one. In terms of their opponent's stats, the Tampa Bay Lightning tallied 33 shots. They had 4 minutes in the box and they earned a total of 3 power play attempts.

Useful Team Statistics

The Maple Leafs have 5 total points this season, which ranks them 13th in the NHL. They are 1st in the league in goals scored with 19 while they've given up 19 goals, ranking them 2nd overall. They have had 19 power play opportunities and have scored 5 goals on those chances for a percentage of 26%. That is 11th in the NHL. The Maple Leafs have allowed 17 power play opportunities and have given up 4 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 76%, putting them 18th in the league when short-handed. They average 34 shots per game and as a team shoot 11.18% for the season. They allow 32 shots to their opposition per contest and have a team save percentage of 88%. That puts them 22nd in the league in stopping the puck.

The Detroit Red Wings went up against the Montreal Canadiens in a matchup where the Red Wings got the victory by a final of 4 - 2. While out there on the ice, Detroit went home with a 54.5% Corsi rating. That percentage was had by earning a Corsi of 48 and their opponent having a Corsi of 40. They earned a Fenwick percentage of 63.8% with a Fenwick of 37 and the Canadiens earning a 21 Fenwick. This Corsi rating is telling of the kind of game that Detroit had and it tells us that they played really well in this game. Their PDO at even strength was 105.2 and their oZS percentage was 45.2%. The Red Wings netted 4 goals out of the 34 shots on goal they took. They had 2 power play chances in this game and converted 1 out of those attempts. Concerning the opposition, the Canadiens had 3 power play opportunities and went on to score 1 goal on that attempt. Detroit allowed 35 shots on goal and the Canadiens had 4 penalty minutes.

Useful Team Statistics

The Red Wings are 6th in the NHL with a total of 6 points this year. They have 2 power play goals on 14 opportunities for a percentage of 14%. That ranks them 24th in the league as a power play unit. They've allowed 10 power play opportunities and have given up 2 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 80%. That is 13th in the NHL. As a team, the Red Wings are 9th in the league with 14 goals scored while they've given up 11 goals, which is 16th overall. They average 32 shots per contest and have a team shooting percentage of 11.02%. As a team they give up 32 shots per game and have a save percentage of 91%. That is 11th in the NHL.

Advanced Statistics

Toronto is 4th in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 55.2%, as they've attempted 235 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 191 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage is 52.2% as they have 166 attempts while they have given up 152 shots on the defensive end. That ranks them 9th in the league. The Maple Leafs start possessions in the offensive zone 47.8% of the time, which is 21st in the league, while their defensive zone percentage is at 52.2% for the season. That is 11th overall in the NHL. They have 117 face-off wins compared to 108 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 52%. That ranks them 10th in the league. On defense Toronto has 60 hits and they have blocked 39 shots from the opposition, putting them 15th overall.

Advanced Statistics

The Red Wings are 30th in the league in starting possessions in the offensive zone, doing so 38.2% of the time. Their defensive zone percentage is at 61.8% for the season, which is 2nd in the NHL. They have 78 face-off wins compared to 81 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 49.1%. That is 17th in the league. On defense Detroit has 63 hits and they have blocked 48 shots from the opposition, which is 2nd in the league. Detroit is 20th in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 49% as they've attempted 143 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 149 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage of 53% ranks 6th as they have 114 attempts while they have given up 101 shots on the defensive end.

Who will win tonight's Maple Leafs/Red Wings NHL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Toronto

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