Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Picks & Predictions 10/10/2019

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Scotiabank Arena

Get todays NHL hockey odds on this game.

The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to Scotiabank Arena to play the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday, October 10, 2019.

Tampa Bay has a record of 1-1-1 this season and on the road they have a record of 0-1-1. They are 6th in the Atlantic Division. They've scored 11 goals and given up 10 goals for a point differential of +1. For the season they have an ATS record of 1-2 and an over/under record of 3-0-0. Toronto is 2-1-1 including 1-0-1-1 at home this season. They are 3rd in the Atlantic Division. They've scored 16 goals and surrendered 12 for a goal differential of +4. Their record against the spread is 2-2 while their over/under record is 1-2-0.

Valuable Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 1-2 straight up this year

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 3-0-0 against the over/under this season

Important Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 2-2 straight up this year

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 1-2-0 against the over/under this season

The Tampa Bay Lightning were on the wrong end of the scoreboard with a 4 - 3 defeat against the Carolina Hurricanes in their last contest. The Lightning offense showed they have some room for improvement in this defeat. For this outing, they converted 3 out of the 13 shots they tried. Additionally, they had 4 power play attempts and scored 1 goal out of those opportunities. Tampa Bay had a total of 10 penalty mins in this matchup. The Corsi for the Lightning sat at 95 and the Corsi against was 135 telling us they have a Corsi percentage of 41.3%. Their Fenwick was 66 while the Fenwick against sat at 108, which means they earned a rate of 37.9%. They took 77 face-off wins and were beaten on 71 of the face-offs. Their offensive zone starts were rated at 39.6% and they had a PDO of 107.9 in this one. With regard to the opposition's stats, the Carolina Hurricanes earned 44 shots. Their total at the end of the game was 8 penalty mins and they tallied 5 power play chances.

The Toronto Maple Leafs opposed the St. Louis Blues in an outing where the Maple Leafs took a loss by a score of 3 - 2. In this game, Toronto wound up with a 73.9% Corsi rating. They earned that percentage by having a Corsi of 130 while the opposition had a Corsi of 46. They earned a Fenwick percentage of 79.3% with a Fenwick of 92 and the Blues finishing with a 24 Fenwick at even strength. This Corsi rating is telling of the kind of game that Toronto played and we'd say it was a below average outing in all. Their PDO was 91.5 and their oZS percentage was 52.3%. The Maple Leafs scored 2 goals out of the 34 shots on goal they took. They had 2 power play chances in this one but weren't able to finish one of them with a goal. Regarding their opponent, the Blues had 3 power play attempts but were not able to score a goal. Toronto conceded 30 shots on goal and the Blues earned 6 penalty mins.

Useful Team Statistics

The Lightning have 3 total points this season, which ranks them 15th in the NHL. They are 8th in the league in goals scored with 11 while they've given up 10 goals, ranking them 9th overall. They have had 8 power play opportunities and have scored 2 goals on those chances for a percentage of 25%. That is 13th in the NHL. The Lightning have allowed 12 power play opportunities and have given up 4 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 67%, putting them 23rd in the league when short-handed. They average 26 shots per game and as a team shoot 14.10% for the season. They allow 36 shots to their opposition per contest and have a team save percentage of 91%. That puts them 12th in the league in stopping the puck.

Useful Team Statistics

The Maple Leafs are 6th in the NHL with a total of 5 points this year. They have 4 power play goals on 17 opportunities for a percentage of 24%. That ranks them 16th in the league as a power play unit. They've allowed 14 power play opportunities and have given up 2 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 86%. That is 9th in the NHL. As a team, the Maple Leafs are 1st in the league with 16 goals scored while they've given up 12 goals, which is 5th overall. They average 36 shots per contest and have a team shooting percentage of 11.27%. As a team they give up 32 shots per game and have a save percentage of 91%. That is 13th in the NHL.

Advanced Statistics

Tampa Bay is 23rd in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 46.8%, as they've attempted 198 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 225 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage is 43.2% as they have 136 attempts while they have given up 179 shots on the defensive end. That ranks them 26th in the league. The Lightning start possessions in the offensive zone 44.8% of the time, which is 23rd in the league, while their defensive zone percentage is at 55.2% for the season. That is 9th overall in the NHL. They have 155 face-off wins compared to 126 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 55.2%. That ranks them 5th in the league. On defense Tampa Bay has 88 hits and they have blocked 46 shots from the opposition, putting them 10th overall.

Advanced Statistics

The Maple Leafs are 17th in the league in starting possessions in the offensive zone, doing so 49.8% of the time. Their defensive zone percentage is at 50.2% for the season, which is 14th in the NHL. They have 140 face-off wins compared to 128 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 52.2%. That is 9th in the league. On defense Toronto has 72 hits and they have blocked 48 shots from the opposition, which is 7th in the league. Toronto is 2nd in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 60.8% as they've attempted 262 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 169 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage of 60.7% ranks 2nd as they have 187 attempts while they have given up 121 shots on the defensive end.

Who will win tonight's Lightning/Maple Leafs NHL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Toronto

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