Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders Expert NHL Picks Against the Spread 11/1/2019

Friday, November 1, 2019

Nassau Coliseum

Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning (6-4-2, 6th in the Atlantic Division) are headed to Nassau Coliseum on Friday where they'll take on the New York Islanders (8-3-0, 3rd in the Metropolitan Division). The Islanders open this game at +113 while the Lightning are priced at -125. The O/U opens at 6. The Lightning are covering 45.5% of the time, having gone 5-6 SU. New York covers 70.0% of the time, going 7-3 straight up.

The Tampa Bay Lightning come into the game holding a record of 6 victories and 4 losses, putting them at 6th in the Atlantic Division. So far this season, they have racked up a total of 41 goals which is good for 7th in the Eastern Conference and 10th in the league. Their goal differential is -1, putting them at 17th in the league. The Lightning have compiled a total of 14 points, which is good for 17th in the league and 9th in the Eastern Conference. When talking about shots at the opposition, they have compiled a total of 367 which is good for 12th in the conference and 25th in the league. As a group, Tampa Bay currently has a total of 221 hits which means they have an average of 18.4 per game. They have compiled a total of 111 blocks for the season. Looking after the goal for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy from London, Ontario. He is 25 years old and has racked up 480 minutes protecting the goal this year. Vasilevskiy is surrendering 3.00 goals per contest which has him ranking 13th in the Eastern Conference and 28th in the NHL among goalies. Over the course of this year, he's allowed 24 goals. He holds a save percentage of .910 which has him ranking 13th in the Eastern Conference.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning had a good night with a 7 - 6 win against the New Jersey Devils the last time they stepped on the ice. The Lightning had a good offensive output in this victory. For this matchup, they scored on 7 of the 23 shots they put on goal. They also had 1 power play opportunity and were able to notch 1 goal on that try. Tampa Bay ended up with a total of 10 penalty mins for this outing. The Corsi for the Lightning sat at 35 and the Corsi against was 39 which means they had a Corsi percentage of 47.3%. Their Fenwick was 25 while the Fenwick against was 33, telling us they have a Fenwick percentage of 43.1%. They won 12 face-off wins at even strength and lost 27 attempts to control the puck. The offensive zone starts for them were rated at 38.1% and they had a PDO at even strength of 116.1 in this one. When it comes to their opponent, the New Jersey Devils racked up 42 shots. Their total at the end of the game was 2 penalty mins and they had 5 power play attempts.

The Islanders will be looking to get a victory in this matchup and for the season they have 8 victories and 3 losses. In terms of goal differential, they are ranked 7th in the Eastern Conference and 10th in the NHL with +6. They have earned a total of 33 goals for the year which is 11th in the East. New York has a save % as a team of .922 which has them 4th in the NHL, which means chances to score may be limited. They have a team shooting percentage of 10.9% putting them at 6th in the Eastern Conference. In goal for New York is Semyon Varlamov who is having a marginal year by giving up 2.53 goals against average and that ranks him 6th among Eastern Conference goalies and 15th among goalies in the NHL. In the 332 mins he's played, he has given up 14 goals. His save % is .918, which ranks him 10th among Eastern Conference goalies and 18th among goalies in the NHL.

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The New York Islanders faced off against the Philadelphia Flyers in a game where the Islanders got the victory by a mark of 5 - 3. For this matchup, New York went home with a 44.3% Corsi rating. They got there by having a Corsi of 39 and the team opposite of them having a Corsi of 49. They had a Fenwick percentage of 51.6% by notching a Fenwick of 33 and the Flyers earning a 31 Fenwick. These Corsi statistics are telling of the type of game that New York played and it was a good performance overall. They had a PDO at even strength of 103.4 and they finished this one with an oZS percentage of 44.0%. The Islanders netted 5 goals out of the 33 shots on goal they attempted. They had 2 power play opportunities in this outing but weren't able to finish one of them with a goal. On the other side of the ice, the Flyers had 3 power play attempts but weren't able to put the puck in the net. New York allowed 31 shots on goal and the Flyers ended up with 11 penalty mins.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-125)

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