Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Picks & Predictions 10/23/2019

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Amalie Arena

Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning (4-3-1, 5th in the Atlantic Division) host the Pittsburgh Penguins (6-3-0, 3rd in the Metropolitan Division) at Amalie Arena on Wednesday, October 23, 2019. The Lightning open this game at -110 while the Penguins are priced at +100. The over/under is set at 6. The Penguins are covering 66.7% of the time, having gone 6-3 SU. The Lightning are covering 42.9% of the time, going 3-4 straight up.

The Pittsburgh Penguins come into this matchup holding a record of 6 wins and 3 losses, ranking them 3rd in the Metropolitan Division. During the year thus far, they have earned a total of 32 goals which puts them at 5th in the Eastern Conference and 7th in the NHL. Their goal differential is +9, ranking them 4th in the NHL. The Penguins have a total of 12 points, which puts them at 7th in the NHL and 5th in the Eastern Conference. In connection with shots toward the net, they have a total of 292 which puts them at 7th in the Eastern Conference and 12th in the NHL. As a group, Pittsburgh has compiled a total of 237 hits which means they are averaging 26.3 per game. They have a total of 86 blocks for the year. The goaltender for Pittsburgh is Matt Murray from Surrey, British Columbia. He is 25 years old and has racked up 422 mins in goal for the campaign. Murray is giving up 2.56 goals per game which puts him at 6th among Eastern Conference goalies and 14th in the NHL among goalies. Over the course of this year, he has given up 18 goals. He has a save % of .914 which puts him at 9th among Eastern Conference goalies.

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The Pittsburgh Penguins were on the losing side of the ice with a 3 - 0 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights their last time out. The Penguins didn't have a great showing offensively in this loss. For this outing, they finished 0 out of the 29 shots they put on goal. In addition, they had 4 power play chances but weren't able to score a goal. Pittsburgh ended up with a total of 6 penalty minutes in this outing. The Corsi for the Penguins was 35 and the Corsi against was 22 which gave them a Corsi percentage of 61.4%. Their Fenwick was 25 while the Fenwick against sat at 18, which means they had a rate of 58.1%. They won 22 face-off wins at even strength and were beaten on 23 of all total face-offs. The offensive zone starts for them came in at 53.0% and they had a PDO of 93.3 for this one. When it comes to their opponent, the Vegas Golden Knights racked up a total of 24 shots. They finished with 8 penalty minutes and they earned 3 power play opportunities.

The Lightning are the team on the other side of the ice and for the campaign they sit with 4 victories and 3 defeats. In the matter of goal differential, they rank 8th in the conference and 15th in the league with +1. They currently have a total of 28 goals for the season which has them at 7th in the Eastern Conference. Tampa Bay has a save % as a team of .898 which has them 19th in the league, meaning scoring chances could be plentiful if they are aggressive. They have a shooting percentage of 11.9% ranking them 1st in the conference. In net for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy who is having a tough season by surrendering 3.15 goals per contest and that places him 15th among East goaltenders and 30th in the NHL. In the 362 mins he has been on the ice, he has surrendered 19 goals. He holds a save percentage of .899, which puts him at 17th among East goaltenders and 30th in the NHL.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning squared up with the Colorado Avalanche in a matchup where the Lightning took the loss by a final of 6 - 2. For this outing, Tampa Bay had a 58.3% Corsi rating. They got to that percentage by earning a Corsi of 49 while their opponent had a Corsi of 35. Their Fenwick rate came in at 53.7% with a Fenwick of 36 and the Avalanche ending the game with a 31 Fenwick at even strength. These Corsi stats tell us the story of the kind of game Tampa Bay had and the stats tell us that they didn't play well overall. They had a PDO of 77.7 and they'll go home having earned an oZS percentage of 72.7%. The Lightning notched 2 goals out of the 46 shots on goal they tried. They had 2 power play chances in this game but were not able to net one. As for their opponent, the Avalanche had 2 power play attempts but were not able to use the chance to their advantage. Tampa Bay allowed 24 shots on goal and the Avalanche ended up with 18 minutes in the box.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-110)

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