Dallas Stars vs Buffalo Sabres Expert NHL Picks Against the Spread 10/14/2019

Monday, October 14, 2019

KeyBank Center

Get todays NHL hockey odds on this game.

KeyBank Center is the site where Jeff Skinner and the Buffalo Sabres (4-0-1, 1st in the Atlantic Division) will take on the Dallas Stars (1-3-1, 5th in the Central Division) on Monday. The Sabres open this contest at -117 while the Stars are priced at +106. The over/under has been set at 5.5. The Stars cover 16.7% of the time, having gone 1-5 SU. The Sabres cover 75.0% of the time, going 3-1 straight up.

The Dallas Stars will look for better times on the ice after their 3 - 2 defeat to the Calgary Flames the last time they stepped on the ice. The Stars left a lot to be desired in terms of their offense in this defeat. In this game, they converted 2 of the 36 shots they looked to score on. In addition, they had 4 power play opportunities and were able to score 1 goal out of those chances. Dallas ended up with a total of 6 penalty minutes in this game. The Corsi for the Stars was 43 and the Corsi against was 42 giving them a Corsi percentage of 50.6%. Their Fenwick was 33 and the Fenwick against sat at 31, giving them a Fenwick percentage of 51.6%. They took 24 face-off wins and lost 14 of the face-offs. Their offensive zone starts came in at 67.1% and they had a PDO of 101.0 for this matchup. Regarding their opponent, the Calgary Flames tallied 29 shots. They ended the game with 10 penalty minutes and they earned 2 power play chances.

Useful Team Statistics

The Stars have 3 total points this season, which ranks them 21st in the NHL. They are 14th in the league in goals scored with 12 while they've given up 14 goals, ranking them 13th overall. They have had 14 power play opportunities and have scored 1 goal on those chances for a percentage of 7%. That is 27th in the NHL. The Stars have allowed 21 power play opportunities and have given up 3 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 86%, putting them 11th in the league when short-handed. They average 28 shots per game and as a team shoot 8.45% for the season. They allow 29 shots to their opposition per contest and have a team save percentage of 90%. That puts them 17th in the league in stopping the puck.

The Buffalo Sabres went up against the Florida Panthers in an outing where the Sabres notched a victory by a final score of 3 - 2. In this outing, Buffalo had a 48.2% Corsi rating. They ended up with that by earning a Corsi of 41 while their opponent earned a Corsi of 44. Their Fenwick rate was 49.3% by way of having a Fenwick of 33 and the Panthers ending the game with a 34 Fenwick at even strength. These Corsi statistics are telling of the type of game that Buffalo played and it tells us they had an average game overall. They had a PDO of 101.0 and they had an oZS percentage of 42.0%. The Sabres converted 3 goals out of the 32 shots on goal they tried. They had 4 power play attempts in this one but weren't able to score a goal. Concerning their opponent, the Panthers had 2 power play chances but weren't able to put the puck in the net. Buffalo gave up 43 shots on goal and the Panthers had 8 penalty mins.

Useful Team Statistics

The Sabres are 2nd in the NHL with a total of 9 points this year. They have 8 power play goals on 19 opportunities for a percentage of 42%. That ranks them 3rd in the league as a power play unit. They've allowed 15 power play opportunities and have given up 4 goals on those chances for a penalty kill percentage of 73%. That is 20th in the NHL. As a team, the Sabres are 2nd in the league with 20 goals scored while they've given up 13 goals, which is 15th overall. They average 33 shots per contest and have a team shooting percentage of 12.05%. As a team they give up 33 shots per game and have a save percentage of 92%. That is 8th in the NHL.

Advanced Statistics

Dallas is 22nd in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 48.4%, as they've attempted 165 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 176 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage is 48% as they have 120 attempts while they have given up 130 shots on the defensive end. That ranks them 20th in the league. The Stars start possessions in the offensive zone 51.4% of the time, which is 15th in the league, while their defensive zone percentage is at 48.6% for the season. That is 17th overall in the NHL. They have 103 face-off wins compared to 97 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 51.5%. That ranks them 12th in the league. On defense Dallas has 66 hits and they have blocked 46 shots from the opposition, putting them 10th overall.

Advanced Statistics

The Sabres are 17th in the league in starting possessions in the offensive zone, doing so 49.9% of the time. Their defensive zone percentage is at 50.1% for the season, which is 15th in the NHL. They have 107 face-off wins compared to 108 losses, meaning their face-off win percentage is 49.8%. That is 13th in the league. On defense Buffalo has 74 hits and they have blocked 51 shots from the opposition, which is 6th in the league. Buffalo is 10th in the NHL in Corsi percentage with 52% as they've attempted 198 shots on net at full strength while they've given up 183 shots on net in the same situations. Their Fenwick percentage of 51.8% ranks 10th as they have 142 attempts while they have given up 132 shots on the defensive end.

Who will win tonight's Stars/Sabres NHL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Buffalo

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