Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Prediction, 1/11/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 1

Game: Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025

Location: NRG Stadium in Houston, TX

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Texans (+3.0)

Total-Over-Under: 42.5

NRG Stadium is where the Houston Texans (10-7) will go up against the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) on Saturday in an AFC Wild Card game. Los Angeles opens as 3.0-point favorites. The total is set at 42.5.

The Los Angeles Chargers step onto the field holding a record of 11-6 for this year. In their last contest, the Chargers faced off with the Las Vegas Raiders and earned the victory with a final of 34-20. Justin Herbert connected on 28-36 with 346 yds through the air and 2 touchdowns. He had a QB rate of 125.2 and ended the game without throwing an interception. J.K. Dobbins led the offense in rushing for the Chargers with 18 attempts for 63 yds (3.5 yds per attempt). Quentin Johnston averaged 14.3 yds per catch by totaling 186 yds on 13 catches. The Los Angeles Chargers ended up running the ball 35 different times and tallied 137 yds, earning them an average of 3.9 yards per tote. In all, they ran 71 plays which gave them a total of 473 yards. Los Angeles conceded 25 completions on 36 attempts for 225 yds, and a completion rate of 69.4%. When it came to stopping the run, the Chargers gave up 39 yards on 12 tries, which averages out to 3.3 yds per rush surrendered.

The Chargers have earned 5,511 yards in total for this campaign. Los Angeles has accrued 176 first downs, and they have been called for 96 penalties for 718 yards. With reference to scoring touchdowns, Los Angeles has earned 23 touchdowns through the air and 17 rushing touchdowns. They have surrendered the ball 9 different times (3 picks and 6 fumbles lost). As a unit they're averaging 110.7 yards on the ground which is 17th in the league. Concerning putting the ball in the endzone, the Los Angeles Chargers are averaging 23.6 PPG.

When talking about yards through the air, the Chargers have surrendered 3,517 yards which puts them in 7th in football. They are conceding 206.9 yards per outing through the air as well as conceding a completion percentage of 65.0%. They have surrendered 24 touchdowns through the air in addition to 7 touchdowns via the ground game. Overall, they are surrendering 324.4 yards-game ranking them 11th in football. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.7 yards per run and 117.5 rushing yards per game over the course of this year. The Chargers rank 1st in the National Football League in terms of the opposition scoring, conceding 17.7 points per game. Over the course of this season, they have conceded 1,997 rushing yards through 17 contests.

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The Texans step onto the field holding a record of 10-7 for this year. In their last game, the Texans took home the win by a final score of 23-14 against the Tennessee Titans. Dameon Pierce carried the ball 19 times for 176 yards, ending the contest with 9.3 yards per carry for Houston. Robert Woods was featured in the passing game for the Texans, catching 2 passes for 39 yards (19.5 yds per catch). Davis Mills finished the contest with 128 yds on 12-22 passing while his QB rating was 71.8. He didn't toss any picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 5.8 yds. Houston relinquished 32 rush attempts for 85 yds (2.7 yds per carry). The Texans passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 61.5%, relinquishing 229 yds on 16 out of 26 passing. The Texans finished with a total of 374 yards while running 57 plays (6.6 yards per play). Houston rushed the football for 7.1 yards per attempt, finishing with a total of 207 yds on 29 attempts.

The Houston Texans hold an average of 319.7 yards per outing which has them ranked 22nd in the league. They have an average of 112.3 yards per game via the ground game and have run for 1,909 yards for this season. The Houston offense has compiled 981 yards of penalties on 119 violations, which has them ranked 6th in football in terms of helping out the opposition. Over the course of the season to this point, the Texans have racked up 3,526 passing yards as well as holding an average of 207.4 throwing yards per contest, which has them sitting 21st in the NFL. When discussing their ability to score points, the Texans are ranked 19th in the NFL holding an average of 21.9 PPG.

They have allowed 31 touchdowns through the air as well as 201.0 yards-outing, which has them sitting 6th in the NFL. Houston has conceded a total of 1,938 yards rushing (114.0 yards per game) and 11 touchdowns by way of the ground game for the season. They have earned 29 takeaways (10 fumbles and 19 interceptions) this year. The Texans defense taken the field for 1,050 plays, which is 15th in the league. The Texans are giving up 21.9 points per game, ranking them 14th in football.

Who will win tonight's Chargers-Texans NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Chargers -3.0

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