Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, 1/26/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds AFC Championship

Game: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025

Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)

Total-Over-Under: 47

The Buffalo Bills (13-4) are en route to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday where they will attempt to beat the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) in the AFC Championship. Buffalo opens this contest as 1.5-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The over-under is set at 47.

The Buffalo Bills step onto the field holding a record of 13-4 for this season. The last time they took the field, the Bills played the Baltimore Ravens and went home with a win by a final score of 27-25. Josh Allen connected on 16-22 with 127 yds passing. He had a QB rate of 86.7 and finished the contest with no interceptions. Khalil Shakir averaged 11.2 yds per catch by accumulating 67 yards on 6 catches. James Cook led the offense in rushing for the Bills with 17 carries for 67 yards (3.9 yds per carry). In all, they ran 58 plays which converted into 273 yards. The Buffalo Bills ended up rushing 36 different times and accumulated 147 yds, which had them averaging 4.1 yards per attempt. When it came to stopping the run, the Bills gave up 176 yds on 30 attempts, which is 5.9 yds per run allowed. Buffalo gave up 18 pass completions on 25 attempts for a total of 240 yards, and a completion rate of 72.0%.

When it comes to putting the ball in the endzone, the Buffalo Bills hold an average of 30.9 PPG. As a unit they maintain an average of 131.2 yards via the ground game which has them sitting 9th in the league. The Bills have racked up 6,105 yards in total for the season. Buffalo has recorded 181 first downs, and they have committed 112 infractions for 833 yards. They have given the ball to the opposition 8 times (6 picks and 2 fumbles lost). In terms of getting in the endzone, Buffalo has compiled 30 touchdowns via the pass and 32 rushing touchdowns.

In terms of yards through the air, the Bills have conceded 3,843 yards which ranks them 24th in the NFL. They are allowing 226.1 yards per game through the air as well as allowing a completion percentage of 68.5%. They have yielded 28 touchdowns through the air and 13 touchdowns via the ground game. In total, they are allowing 341.5 yards per contest which has them ranked 17th in football. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.5 yards per run and 115.5 yards on the ground per contest for the season. The Bills rank 11th in the league in terms of team defense, conceding 21.6 points per contest. Overall, they have allowed 1,963 rushing yards through 17 games.

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The Chiefs come into this game with a record of 15-2 for this year. In their last contest, the Chiefs got the win with a final of 23-14 against the Houston Texans. Patrick Mahomes (1 touchdown) finished the contest with 177 yards on 16-25 passing while his QB rate was 98.2. He kept the ball away from the defense with no interceptions and his average yds per pass attempt was 7.1 yards. Travis Kelce was the leading receiver for the Chiefs, grabbing 7 throws for 117 yds (16.7 yds per catch). Kareem Hunt ran the ball 8 times for 44 yds, walking away from the contest with 5.5 yds per attempt for Kansas City. The Chiefs finished the contest with a total of 212 yds while running 47 plays (4.5 yds per play). Kansas City ran for 2.3 yds per carry, finishing with 50 yards on 22 carries. Kansas City allowed 29 rush attempts for 149 yards (5.1 yards per carry). The Chiefs passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 67.9%, relinquishing 187 yds on 19 out of 28 through the air.

In terms of putting points on the board, the Chiefs are ranking 15th in the league with an average of 22.6 PPG. During this campaign thus far, the Chiefs currently have a total of 3,780 passing yards as well as holding an average of 222.4 passing yards per game, giving them a rank of 14th in the league. They maintain an average of 105.3 rushing yards per game and have run for 1,790 yards for this year. The Kansas City Chiefs maintain an average of 327.6 yards per game which has them sitting 16th in the league. The Kansas City offense has totaled 829 yds of penalties on 94 violations, which has them ranked 29th in football in terms of helping out the other team.

They have allowed 24 touchdowns through the air in addition to 218.8 yards-game, ranking them 18th in the league. Kansas City has allowed the opposition a total of 1,731 yards via the ground game (101.8 yards per game) in addition to 13 touchdowns by way of the ground game this season. They have compiled 20 turnovers (7 fumbles and 13 interceptions) this year. The Chiefs defense taken the field for 1,026 plays, which is good for 5th in football. The Chiefs are surrendering 19.2 points per contest, ranking them 4th in football.

Who will win tonight's Bills-Chiefs NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Chiefs -1.5

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