Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 10/3/2024 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Date: Thursday, October 3, 2024

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

TV: Prime Video

Odds/Point Spread: Falcons (-1.5)

Total/Over-Under: 43.5

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is where the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) will attempt to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) on Thursday. Tampa Bay opens as 1.5-point dogs. The betting total comes in at 43.5.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers step onto the field holding a record of 3-1 this season. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Buccaneers took on the Philadelphia Eagles and notched a win by a score of 33-16. Bucky Irving was the rushing leader for the Buccaneers with 10 totes for 49 yds (4.9 yards per carry). Mike Evans averaged 11.8 yds per reception by notching 94 yards on 8 catches. Baker Mayfield finished 30/47 with 347 yds passing and 2 TDs. He had a quarterback rate of 100.2 and walked away from the game with no picks. Against the rush, the Buccaneers gave up 113 yards on 20 tries, which is an average of 5.7 yards per run surrendered. Tampa Bay surrendered 18 pass completions on 30 attempts for a total of 114 yds, and a completion percentage of 60.0%. When the final whistle blew, they ran 72 plays which gave them a total of 445 yds. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran the football 25 different times and recorded 111 yds, which earned them an average of 4.4 yds per carry.

Concerning scoring, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are averaging 24.3 points per game. As a team they're averaging 96.0 yards on the ground ranking this team at 25th in the NFL. The Buccaneers have attained 1,276 total yards this year. Tampa Bay has recorded 53 1st downs offensively, and they have been flagged for 19 penalties for 120 yards. They have turned the football over 3 times (2 picks and 1 fumble lost). In terms of scoring touchdowns, Tampa Bay has amassed 8 touchdowns through the air and 3 rushing touchdowns.

Concerning yards through the air, the Buccaneers have surrendered 815 yards which puts them in 16th in the league. They have surrendered 203.8 yards per contest through the air and allowed a completion percentage of 65.1%. They have yielded 1 touchdown by air in addition to 7 touchdowns via the ground game. Overall, they are giving up 335.3 yards per game ranking them 18th in the NFL. They are giving up an average of 5.0 yards per rush and 131.5 rushing yards per game for the year. The Buccaneers rank 9th in the NFL concerning their opponents scoring, allowing 19.5 points per contest. During the season, they have given up 526 yards via the ground game in 4 games.

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The Falcons come into this game with a record of 2-2 this season. In their last contest, the Falcons walked away with a victory by a final of 26-24 against the New Orleans Saints. Tyler Allgeier carried the rock 8 times for 60 yards, ending the contest with 7.5 yds per attempt for Atlanta. Drake London was a featured target for the Falcons, bringing in 6 throws for 64 yds (10.7 yards per reception). Kirk Cousins finished the game with 238 yards on 21/35 through the air while his QB rate was 68.5. He tossed 1 pick and his average yds per pass attempt was 6.8 yds. Atlanta conceded 33 running attempts for 131 yards (4.0 yards per carry). The Falcons pass defense gave up a completion percentage of 77.8%, relinquishing 235 yds on 28 for 36 passing. The Falcons finished the contest with a total of 315 yds on 50 plays (6.3 yards per play). Atlanta ran the football for 5.9 yards per carry, finishing the game with 88 yds on 15 carries.

In relation to putting points on the board, the Falcons currently sit 22nd in the NFL holding an average of 18.8 PPG. For the year to this point, the Falcons have thrown for a total of 826 passing yards in addition to an average of 206.5 passing yards per outing, which has them sitting 17th in the NFL. They have an average of 102.8 run yards per game and have rushed for 411 yards for the year. The Atlanta Falcons are averaging 309.3 yards per outing ranking them 19th out of all teams in the league. The Atlanta offense has 194 penalty yards on 23 violations, which is good for 22nd in the league in terms of hurting your team.

They have yielded 3 touchdowns through the air in addition to 191.0 yards/contest, which has them sitting 13th out of all teams. Atlanta has surrendered a total of 582 yards on the ground (145.5 yards per outing) as well as 4 touchdowns via the rush for the season. They have compiled 4 takeaways (1 fumble and 3 interceptions) this season. The Falcons defense has taken part in 276 plays, which is 31st in football. The Falcons are relinquishing 21.3 PPG, which has them sitting 14th in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Buccaneers/Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Buccaneers +1.5

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