New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, 10/7/2024 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Monday, October 7, 2024

Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Chiefs (-5.0)

Total/Over-Under: 42.5

The New Orleans Saints (2-2) are en route to Arrowhead Stadium on Monday where they will attempt to beat the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0). Kansas City is 5.0-point favorites. The total is set at 42.5.

The New Orleans Saints come into this matchup with a record of 2-2 this season. When they last took the field, the Saints went up against the Atlanta Falcons and ended up losing by a score of 26-24. Alvin Kamara was the best rusher for the Saints with 19 carries for 77 yds (4.1 yards per carry). Chris Olave had an average of 10.9 yds per reception by accounting for 87 yds on 8 catches. Derek Carr finished 28/36 with 239 yds passing. He had a QB rate of 82.8 and ended the game with 1 pick. When it came to stopping the run, the Saints conceded 88 yards on 15 attempts, which averages out to 5.9 yards per run allowed. New Orleans conceded 21 pass completions on 35 tries for 227 yards, and a completion percentage of 60.0%. When all was said and done, they had 69 plays which gave them 366 yds. The New Orleans Saints ended up running the ball 33 times and totaled 131 yards, which earned them an average of 4.0 yards per carry.

In terms of scoring, the New Orleans Saints have an average of 31.8 PPG. As a team they hold an average of 147.5 yards via the ground game which ranks them 7th in the NFL. The Saints have tallied 1,396 total yards this year. New Orleans has accumulated 33 1st downs, and they have been called for 24 penalties for 220 yds. They have given the ball to the opposition 5 times (3 interceptions and 2 fumbles). In terms of getting the ball in the endzone, New Orleans has earned 6 touchdowns through the air and 9 rushing touchdowns.

The Saints rank 6th in the league regarding their opponents scoring, conceding 17.5 points per game. They are giving up 4.8 yards per running attempt and 96.5 rushing yards per contest over the course of this season. For the season, they have allowed 386 yards via the ground game in 4 games. When talking about passing yardage, the Saints have given up 935 yards which has them sitting in 25th in the NFL. They have conceded 233.8 yards per contest through the air as well as giving up a completion percentage of 62.3%. During the season, they are allowing 330.3 yards per contest which puts them 17th in the NFL. They have yielded 1 touchdown by air and 3 touchdowns on the ground.

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The Chiefs head into this matchup 4-0 for this season. In their last contest, the Chiefs took home the win by a final score of 17-10 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Kareem Hunt carried the ball 14 times for 69 yds, finishing the game with 4.9 yards per carry for Kansas City. Travis Kelce had the best day in terms of receiving for the Chiefs, grabbing 7 passes for 89 yards (12.7 yds per reception). Patrick Mahomes (1 touchdown) ended the contest with 245 yards on 19/29 through the air while his QB rating was 89. He had 1 interception and his avg yards per attempt was 8.4 yards. Kansas City relinquished 24 attempts on the ground for 55 yds (2.3 yds per rush). The Chiefs pass defense gave up a completion percentage of 59.3%, surrendering 169 yds on 16 for 27 through the air. The Chiefs finished the contest with a total of 329 yards while running 55 plays (6.0 yards per play). Kansas City rushed the ball for 3.9 yards per carry, finishing with a total of 101 yds on 26 attempts.

The Kansas City Chiefs have an average of 328.3 yards per contest which is good for 14th in the NFL. They maintain an average of 112.5 yards per game via the rush and have rushed for 450 yards for the season. The Kansas City offense has 190 penalty yds on 21 infractions, which ranks 25th in the league in terms of helping out the opposition. During this campaign thus far, the Chiefs have thrown for 863 passing yards as well as holding an average of 215.8 throwing yards per outing, ranking them 11th in the NFL. Regarding their scoring prowess, the Chiefs are sitting 14th in the league holding an average of 23.0 points per outing.

The Chiefs are conceding 18.0 PPG, which puts them in 7th of all teams in the league. They have conceded 5 touchdowns via the pass as well as 227.8 yards per game, which has them in 23rd in the league. Kansas City has allowed the opposition a total of 396 yards via the ground game (99.0 yards/game) and 2 touchdowns on the ground this season. The Chiefs defense has been on the field for 244 plays, which is good for 17th in the league. Their defense has earned 3 turnovers (2 fumbles recovered and 1 pick) on the year.

Who will win tonight's Saints/Chiefs NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Chiefs -5.0

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