Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, 10/6/2024 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, October 6, 2024

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: Fox

Odds/Point Spread: Patriots (-1.5)

Total/Over-Under: 35.5

Gillette Stadium is the location where the New England Patriots (1-3) will play the Miami Dolphins (1-3) on Sunday. New England opens as 1.5-point favorites. The total has been set at 35.5.

The Miami Dolphins come into this matchup with a record of 1-3 for this year. In their last contest, the Dolphins played against the Tennessee Titans and ended up losing by a score of 31-12. Tyler Huntley finished 14/22 with 96 yards passing. He had a quarterback rate of 73.3 and ended the game without throwing an interception. Tyler Huntley was the best rusher for the Dolphins with 8 totes for 40 yds (5.0 yds per attempt). Jaylen Waddle averaged 9.0 yards per catch by accumulating 36 yards on 4 catches. The Miami Dolphins ended up running the ball 30 times and compiled 106 yards, which had them averaging 3.5 yds per attempt. In all, they had 52 plays for 184 yards. Miami allowed 12 completions on 21 tries for a total of 102 yards, and a completion percentage of 57.1%. On the ground, the Dolphins gave up 142 yds on 40 attempts, which is 3.6 yds per rush surrendered.

The Dolphins have earned 1,140 total yards for the year. Miami has accounted for 35 first downs as a unit, and they have committed 37 penalties for 336 yards. When it comes to scoring touchdowns, Miami has amassed 2 passing touchdowns and 2 touchdowns on the ground. They have surrendered the ball 4 different times (3 interceptions and 1 fumble lost). As a team they average 97.8 yards on the ground giving them a rank of 24th in the league. When talking about scoring, the Miami Dolphins have an average of 11.3 PPG.

The Dolphins are ranked 26th in the league regarding their opponents scoring, allowing 25.8 points per game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 119.5 rushing yards per game for the season. During this campaign, they have conceded 478 rushing yards through 4 games. When it comes to passing yards, the Dolphins have given up 650 yards which has them ranked 5th in the league. They have allowed 162.5 yards per game via the pass as well as giving up a completion percentage of 66.3%. For the season, they have relinquished 282.0 yards per contest which has them sitting 6th in the National Football League. They have yielded 3 touchdowns by air in addition to 7 touchdowns on the ground.

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The Patriots head into this matchup 1-3 for this year. In their last contest, the Patriots took a defeat with a final score of 30-13 against the San Francisco 49ers. Jacoby Brissett (1 TD) ended the contest with 168 yards on 19/32 through the air while his QB rating was 70.8. He tossed 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 5.3 yds. Antonio Gibson was the best receiver for the Patriots, hauling in 3 footballs for 67 yds (22.3 yards per catch). Rhamondre Stevenson carried the rock 13 times for 43 yds, finishing the game with 3.3 yds per carry for New England. The Patriots finished the game with 216 yards on 56 plays (3.9 yards per play). New England ended up running for 3.0 yards per attempt, finishing the contest with 73 yds on 24 carries. New England gave up 32 rushing attempts for 148 yards (4.6 yards per carry). The Patriots pass defense gave up a completion percentage of 55.6%, surrendering 283 yds on 15 for 27 through the air.

When it comes to their scoring prowess, the Patriots sit 31st in the league maintaining an average of 13.0 points per game. Over the course of the season to this point, the Patriots have compiled 449 yards via the pass in addition to holding an average of 112.3 passing yards per outing, which has them ranked 32nd in football. They are averaging 126.5 yards via the ground game and have toted the ball for 506 yards in total. The New England Patriots hold an average of 238.8 yards per contest which ranks them 32nd out of all teams in the league. The New England offense has compiled 172 yards of penalties on 16 violations, which ranks 32nd in football in terms of helping out the opposition.

The Patriots are conceding 21.8 PPG, which has them sitting 17th in football. They have conceded 4 touchdowns through the air and 254.0 yards per outing, which has them ranked 28th in the NFL. New England has allowed the opposition a total of 397 rushing yards (99.3 yards per outing) and 4 touchdowns by way of the ground game this year. The Patriots defense has been on the field for 244 plays, which is 18th in the NFL. Their defense has totaled 4 takeaways (3 fumbles and 1 interception) on the season.

Who will win tonight's Dolphins/Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Dolphins +1.5

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