Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, 1/13/2024 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Wildcard

Game: Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Saturday, January 13, 2024

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: Peacock

Odds/Point Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

Total/Over-Under: 43

The Miami Dolphins (11-6) are traveling to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday where they will attempt to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) in an AFC Wildcard game. Miami opens this game as 3.5-point dogs. The over/under is 43.

The Miami Dolphins head into this game 11-6 for this season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Dolphins went up against the Bills and ended up losing by a score of 21-14. De'Von Achane was the leader on the ground for the Dolphins with 10 attempts for 56 yds (5.6 yds per carry). Tyreek Hill held an average of 11.7 yards per catch by accounting for 82 yds on 7 receptions. Tua Tagovailoa connected on 17/27 with 173 yds passing and 1 TD. He had a QB rate of 62.7 and walked away from the contest with 2 interceptions. Against the rush, the Dolphins gave up 128 yds on 36 tries, which is an average of 3.6 yds per run allowed. Miami relinquished 30 completions on 38 attempts for 345 yds, and a completion percentage of 78.9%. When the final whistle blew, they ran 48 plays for 275 yards. The Miami Dolphins ran the ball 20 times and had 108 yds, which earned them an average of 5.4 yards per attempt.

In terms of scoring points, the Miami Dolphins have an average of 29.2 PPG. As a unit they average 135.8 yards rushing which is 6th in the NFL. The Dolphins have earned 6,822 total yards for this campaign. Miami has earned 223 1st downs offensively, and they have been flagged for 97 penalties for 767 yds. They have surrendered the ball 25 different times (15 interceptions and 10 fumbles lost). With reference to distribution of touchdowns, Miami has compiled 30 passing touchdowns and 27 rushing touchdowns.

The Dolphins sit in 22nd in the NFL in relation to team defense, giving up 23.0 PPG. They are allowing 3.8 yards per rushing attempt and 97.1 rushing yards per contest for the year. During the season, they have given up 1,650 rushing yards through 17 outings. Regarding yards via the pass, the Dolphins have surrendered 3,761 yards which has them ranked 15th in the NFL. They have yielded 221.2 yards per game through the air and giving up a completion percentage of 66.9%. Over the course of this year, they have allowed 318.3 yards per outing which has them ranked 10th in the National Football League.

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The Chiefs come into this game with a record of 11-6 this season. In their last game, the Chiefs got the win with a final of 13-12 when they played the Chargers. La'Mical Perine carried the football 21 times for 76 yds, finishing the game with 3.6 yards per carry for Kansas City. Mecole Hardman had the best day in terms of receiving for the Chiefs, bringing in 6 passes for 77 yds (12.8 yards per catch). Blaine Gabbert walked away from the game with 154 yards on 15/30 through the air while his quarterback rate was 51.3. He tossed 1 interception and his avg yards per attempt was 5.1 yards. Kansas City conceded 30 rush attempts for 118 yards (3.9 yards per rush). The Chiefs pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 59.6%, surrendering 235 yards on 28 for 47 through the air. The Chiefs finished the contest with a total of 268 yds while running 59 plays (4.5 yds per play). Kansas City ran the football for 4.4 yards per tote, finishing the contest with 123 yards on 28 attempts.

Regarding the points being put on the board, the Chiefs are sitting 15th out of all teams in the NFL averaging 21.8 PPG. For the year thus far, the Chiefs currently have a total of 4,188 passing yards as well as an average of 246.4 passing yards per outing, putting them at 6th in the league. They are averaging 104.9 yards per game via the rush and have rushed for 1,784 yards for this season. The Kansas City Chiefs are averaging 351.3 yards per contest which is good for 9th in the league. The Kansas City offense has totaled 845 yards of penalties on 96 violations, which is good for 19th in the NFL in terms of giving up free yards. They have thrown 17 interceptions while conceding 11 fumbles and they have earned 216 first downs.

They have allowed 19 touchdowns through the air as well as 176.5 yards/outing, ranking them 4th in the league. Kansas City has allowed a total of 1,925 rushing yards (113.2 yards per game) and 10 touchdowns by ground for the season. Over the course of the season, they have surrendered 294 points in total. They have totaled 17 turnovers (9 fumbles recovered and 8 picks) so far this season. The Chiefs defense taken the field for 1,045 plays, which ranks 8th in football. The Chiefs are giving up 17.3 PPG, which puts them in 2nd of all teams in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Dolphins/Chiefs NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Chiefs -3.5

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