Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 1/21/2024 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Divisional Round

Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, January 21, 2024

Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Bills (-2.5)

Total/Over-Under: 46

The Buffalo Bills (12-6) are welcoming the Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday for an AFC Divisional Playoff game. Kansas City opens as 2.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 46.

The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game with a record of 12-6 for this season. In their Wild Card game, the Chiefs played the Dolphins and notched a win by a score of 26-7. Isiah Pacheco was the rushing leader for the Chiefs with 24 carries for 89 yds (3.7 yds per carry). Rashee Rice had an average of 16.3 yards per catch by earning 130 yards on 8 receptions. Patrick Mahomes went 23/41 with 262 yds through the air and 1 TD. He had a quarterback rate of 83.6 and finished the game without throwing a pick. Against the run, the Chiefs conceded 76 yds on 18 attempts, which is an average of 4.2 yards per rush surrendered. Kansas City conceded 20 pass completions on 39 tries for 188 yards, and a completion rate of 51.3%. On the day, they ran 75 plays which totaled 409 yds. The Kansas City Chiefs ended up running the ball 34 times and amassed 147 yards, which came out to an average of 4.3 yards per carry.

The Chiefs have earned 5,972 total yards this season. Kansas City has accounted for 216 1st downs as a unit, and they have been hurt by 96 penalties for 845 yards. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, Kansas City has totaled 28 touchdowns via the pass and 9 touchdowns via the ground. They have given the ball to the opposition 28 times (17 interceptions and 11 fumbles lost). As a unit they hold an average of 104.9 yards on the ground ranking them 19th in the league. When talking about scoring points, the Kansas City Chiefs are averaging 21.8 points per contest.

When it comes to yards through the air, the Chiefs have given up 3,001 yards which ranks them 4th in the league. They have conceded 176.5 yards per game through the air and giving up a completion percentage of 61.2%. For the season, they are allowing 289.8 yards/outing which puts them 2nd in the NFL. They are allowing 4.5 yards per run and 113.2 rushing yards per contest this year. Overall, they have given up 1,925 rushing yards through 17 games. The Chiefs are sitting in 2nd in the National Football League when it comes to team defense, allowing 17.3 points per game.

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The Bills step onto the field holding a record of 12-6 for this year. In their Wild Card contest, the Bills went home victorious with a score of 31-17 against the Steelers. James Cook carried the ball 18 times for 79 yds, finishing the game with 4.4 yards per attempt for Buffalo. Dalton Kincaid was the best receiver for the Bills, catching 3 throws for 59 yards (19.7 yards per catch). Josh Allen (3 touchdowns) finished the contest with 203 yds on 21/30 through the air while his QB rating was 121.9. He didn't toss any picks and his avg yards per attempt was 6.8 yards. Buffalo surrendered 23 run attempts for 106 yds (4.6 yds per rush). The Bills pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 56.4%, surrendering 218 yards on 22 for 39 passing. The Bills finished the game with 368 yds while they ran 66 plays (5.6 yds per play). Buffalo rushed the football for 5.3 yards per carry, totaling 179 yards on 34 attempts.

In relation to their scoring prowess, the Bills currently sit 6th in football averaging 26.5 points per contest. For the year thus far, the Bills currently have a total of 4,154 yards via the pass as well as an average of 244.4 passing yards per game, putting them at 8th in the league. They have an average of 130.1 yards per game via the ground game and have run for 2,212 yards for the season. The Buffalo Bills average 374.5 yards per outing ranking them 4th out of all teams in the NFL. The Buffalo offense has totaled 883 yds of penalties on 106 infractions, which is good for 7th in the league in terms of helping out the other team. They have thrown 18 interceptions while surrendering 10 fumbles and they have been able to record 199 1st downs.

They have yielded 18 touchdowns through the air in addition to 196.6 yards per game, which puts them in 7th in football. Buffalo has conceded a total of 1,880 yards rushing (110.6 yards/game) as well as 14 touchdowns by way of the ground game for the season. Overall, they have allowed 311 total points. Their defense has compiled 30 turnovers (12 fumbles recovered and 18 picks) for the season. The Bills defense has been on the field for 1,015 plays, which is good for 3rd in football. The Bills are allowing 18.3 PPG, which has them sitting 4th of all teams in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Chiefs/Bills NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Bills -2.5

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