Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction, 1/5/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 18

Game: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, January 5, 2025

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Patriots (+2.0)

Total-Over-Under: 40.5

Gillette Stadium is the location where the New England Patriots (3-13) will attempt to beat the Buffalo Bills (13-3) on Sunday. New England opens as 2.0-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total has been set at 40.5.

The Buffalo Bills come into this game with a record of 13-3 for this season. In their last game, the Bills faced the New York Jets and earned the victory with a final of 24-21. Josh Allen connected on 16-27 with 182 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. He had a QB rate of 104.2 and finished the game without throwing an interception. James Cook was the rushing leader for the Bills with 15 totes for 53 yards (3.5 yds per carry). Keon Coleman averaged 9.0 yds per catch by notching 27 yards on 3 catches. The Buffalo Bills ran the ball a total of 34 times and totaled 97 yards, earning them an average of 2.9 yards per carry. When all was said and done, they ran 62 plays which converted into 348 yds. Buffalo relinquished 22 pass completions on 36 attempts for a total of 253 yards, and a completion percentage of 61.1%. In the running game, the Bills gave up 126 yds on 30 attempts, which calculates to 4.2 yds per rush allowed.

The Bills have racked up 5,846 yards in total for this campaign. Buffalo has accrued 174 first downs as an offense, and they have committed 106 penalties for 798 yds. When it comes to getting the ball in the endzone, Buffalo has compiled 29 passing touchdowns and 31 rushing touchdowns. They have turned the football over 8 different times (6 interceptions and 2 fumbles). As a unit they maintain an average of 131.3 yards on the ground which ranks them 9th in the league. In terms of getting in the endzone, the Buffalo Bills are sitting at 31.8 points per game.

In terms of yards through the air, the Bills have conceded 3,611 yards which puts them in 23rd in the league. They are giving up 225.7 yards per game through the air in addition to conceding a completion percentage of 68.2%. They have allowed 27 touchdowns through the air in addition to 12 touchdowns on the ground. During this campaign, they have yielded 343.6 yards-outing putting them 21st in the National Football League. They are allowing an average of 4.7 yards per rush and 117.9 rushing yards per game this year. The Bills rank 11th in the NFL regarding team defense, conceding 21.6 points per game. Overall, they have given up 1,886 yards via the running game in 16 games.

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The Patriots head into this game 3-13 for this year. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Patriots walked away with a loss by a score of 24-21 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Drake Maye (1 TD) ended the game with 117 yds on 12-22 through the air while his QB rate was 84.8. He kept the ball away from the defense with no interceptions and his average yds per pass attempt was 5.3 yards. Kayshon Boutte was the top contributor in the passing game for the Patriots, hauling in 4 footballs for 28 yards (7.0 yds per reception). Antonio Gibson ran the football 12 times for 63 yards, finishing the contest with 5.3 yards per carry for New England. The Patriots finished the game with 181 yards and they ran 44 plays (4.1 yds per play). New England rushed the ball for 4.8 yds per attempt, finishing the contest with 96 yds on 20 attempts. New England gave up 28 attempts on the ground for 172 yds (6.1 yards per rush). The Patriots pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 55.2%, surrendering 152 yards on 16 for 29 passing.

The New England Patriots are averaging 290.9 yards-outing which is good for 30th out of all teams in the league. They maintain an average of 118.3 run yards per game and have rushed for 1,892 yards for the year. The New England offense has accrued 857 penalty yards on 104 violations, which is 15th in the NFL in terms of hurting your team. During this campaign so far, the Patriots have thrown for a total of 2,763 passing yards as well as an average of 172.7 throwing yards per game, ranking them 32nd in the league. When looking at putting points on the board, the Patriots rank 30th in the league averaging 16.6 points per contest.

The Patriots are relinquishing 25.1 PPG, which has them in 26th in football. They have conceded 26 touchdowns via the pass and 216.7 yards per outing, which puts them in 15th in the NFL. New England has conceded a total of 2,103 yards via the ground game (131.4 yards-game) and 15 touchdowns on the ground for the year. The Patriots defense has participated in 1,003 plays, which is 23rd in football. They have totaled 12 takeaways (5 fumbles recovered and 7 picks) so far this season.

Who will win tonight's Bills-Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Bills -2.0

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