Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, 1/7/2024 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 18

Game: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, January 7, 2024

Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Dolphins (+3)

Total/Over-Under: 50.5

Hard Rock Stadium is where the Miami Dolphins (11-5) will compete against the Buffalo Bills (10-6) on Sunday. Miami opens this matchup as 3-point dogs. The over/under comes in at 50.5.

The Buffalo Bills come into this matchup with a record of 10-6 for this season. The last time they took the field, the Bills faced the Patriots and notched a win by a score of 27-21. Josh Allen went 15/30 with 169 yards passing. He had a quarterback rating of 53.3 and finished the contest with 1 interception. Dalton Kincaid averaged 21.8 yds per reception by totaling 87 yds on 4 catches. James Cook led the offense in rushing for the Bills with 16 carries for 48 yds (3.0 yards per attempt). Overall, they tallied 68 plays which totaled 281 yds. The Buffalo Bills ran the ball 37 different times and totaled 127 yards, which had them averaging 3.4 yards per attempt. In the running game, the Bills gave up 103 yds on 24 attempts, which calculates to 4.3 yds per run allowed. Buffalo gave up 16 completions on 26 attempts for 191 yds, and a completion rate of 61.5%.

The Bills have attained 5,893 total yards this season. Buffalo has compiled 185 1st downs offensively, and they have been called for 100 infractions for 842 yds. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, Buffalo has compiled 27 passing touchdowns and 22 touchdowns via the ground. They have turned the football over 25 different times (16 interceptions and 9 fumbles). As a unit they maintain an average of 130.3 yards on the ground which is 7th in the NFL. In terms of putting the ball in the endzone, the Buffalo Bills are sitting at 26.9 points per contest.

The Bills rank 4th in the NFL concerning their opponents scoring, allowing 18.6 PPG. They are allowing an average of 4.6 yards per attempt on the ground and 110.8 yards on the ground per game over the course of this season. In total, they have given up 1,772 yards via the ground game in 16 games. Concerning passing yardage, the Bills have surrendered 3,175 yards which has them sitting in 7th in football. They have conceded 198.4 yards per contest through the air and allowed a completion percentage of 65.9%. Overall, they are allowing 309.2 yards/contest putting them at 10th in the league.

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The Dolphins step onto the field holding a record of 11-5 for this season. When they last took the field, the Dolphins went home defeated by a final of 56-19 when they faced the Ravens. De'Von Achane carried the ball 14 times for 107 yards, ending the contest with 7.6 yards per carry for Miami. Tyreek Hill had the best day in terms of receiving for the Dolphins, snagging 6 footballs for 76 yards (12.7 yards per reception). Tua Tagovailoa (2 TDs) ended the game with 237 yds on 22/38 through the air while his quarterback rating was 71.9. He tossed 2 interceptions and his Y/A was 6.2 yards. Miami allowed 32 attempts on the ground for 160 yds (5.0 yards per rush). The Dolphins pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 86.4%, surrendering 331 yards on 19 out of 22 through the air. The Dolphins finished the game with 375 yards while they ran 66 plays (5.7 yds per play). Miami ran the ball for 6.2 yards per attempt, finishing the contest with 154 yards on 25 attempts.

The Miami Dolphins have an average of 409.2 yards per contest which is good for 1st in the league. They maintain an average of 137.5 yards per game via the rush and have rushed for 2,200 yards overall. They have tossed 13 picks while surrendering 10 fumbles and they have tallied 214 1st downs. The Miami offense has totaled 738 penalty yds on 93 violations, which is good for 16th in football in terms of helping out the opposition. Over the course of the season so far, the Dolphins have earned 4,347 passing yards along with holding an average of 271.7 passing yards per outing, giving them a rank of 1st out of all NFL teams. In terms of this team's ability to score points, the Dolphins are ranking 1st in football by scoring 30.1 points per outing.

The Dolphins are allowing 23.1 PPG, which has them in 21st of all teams in the NFL. They have yielded 25 touchdowns through the air as well as 213.5 yards/outing, which has them sitting 12th in the league. Miami has given up a total of 1,522 yards rushing (95.1 yards per outing) as well as 15 touchdowns by way of the ground game this season. The Dolphins defense has taken part in 980 plays, which is good for 9th in the league. Their defense has totaled 24 takeaways (11 fumbles and 13 interceptions) for the year. Overall, they have allowed 370 total points.

Who will win tonight's Bills/Dolphins NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Bills -3

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