Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Prediction, 1/7/2024 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 18

Game: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Date: Sunday, January 7, 2024

Location: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Saints (-3.5)

Total/Over-Under: 41.5

Caesars Superdome is the location where the New Orleans Saints (8-8) will go up against the Atlanta Falcons (7-9) on Sunday. New Orleans is 3.5-point favorites. The over/under has been set at 41.5.

The Atlanta Falcons come into this matchup with a record of 7-9 for this season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Falcons faced the Bears and took a loss by a score of 37-17. Taylor Heinicke connected on 10/29 with 163 yards passing and 1 TD. He had a quarterback rate of 26.1 and walked away from the contest with 3 picks. Bijan Robinson was the rushing leader for the Falcons with 15 attempts for 75 yards (5.0 yards per attempt). Tyler Allgeier left with an average of 75.0 yards per reception by accumulating 75 yards on 1 reception. The Atlanta Falcons ended up running the ball 24 different times and accounted for 134 yds, which is an average of 5.6 yds per attempt. In all, they ran 59 plays which converted into 307 yards. Atlanta conceded 20 completions on 32 tries for 240 yds, and a completion percentage of 62.5%. In the running game, the Falcons conceded 192 yards on 37 attempts, which is an average of 5.2 yds per run allowed.

In terms of putting the ball in the endzone, the Atlanta Falcons hold an average of 19.0 points per outing. As a team they average 130.1 yards on the ground which is 8th in the NFL. The Falcons have racked up 5,294 total yards for the season. Atlanta has accounted for 170 1st downs as an offense, and they have committed 76 infractions for 668 yds. They have turned the football over 25 different times (15 interceptions and 10 fumbles lost). In terms of distribution of touchdowns, Atlanta has earned 15 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns.

The Falcons rank 10th in the National Football League when it comes to their opponents scoring, conceding 20.3 points per contest. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.0 yards per attempt on the ground and 115.9 rushing yards per contest over the course of this year. Over the course of this year, they have given up 1,855 running yards through 16 games. Regarding passing yards, the Falcons have surrendered 3,203 yards which ranks them 8th in the National Football League. They are giving up 200.2 yards per contest via the pass and giving up a completion percentage of 61.0%. For the season, they have given up 316.1 yards per game ranking them 11th in the National Football League.

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The Saints come into this game with a record of 8-8 for this season. In their last contest, the Saints walked away with a victory by a final of 23-13 when they faced the Buccaneers. Jamaal Williams carried the ball 19 times for 58 yds, walking away from the contest with 3.1 yds per carry for New Orleans. Juwan Johnson had the best day in terms of receiving for the Saints, bringing in 8 footballs for 90 yds (11.3 yards per reception). Derek Carr (2 TDs) walked away from the game with 197 yds on 24/32 passing while his QB rate was 111.1. He didn't throw any interceptions and his Y/A was 6.2 yards. New Orleans conceded 15 running attempts for 57 yds (3.8 yards per rush). The Saints secondary gave up a completion percentage of 66.7%, surrendering 292 yards on 22 out of 33 through the air. The Saints finished the game with a total of 310 yds while running 70 plays (4.4 yards per play). New Orleans ran the ball for 3.1 yards per attempt, finishing the game with 108 yards on 35 attempts.

Regarding this team's ability to score points, the Saints are ranked 15th in the league averaging 22.1 points per game. Over the course of the season so far, the Saints have earned 3,744 yards through the air as well as an average of 234.0 passing yards per contest, which has them ranked 12th in the NFL. They maintain an average of 99.3 rushing yards per game and have rushed for 1,588 yards for the season. The New Orleans Saints hold an average of 333.3 yards per outing ranking them 16th out of all teams in the league. The New Orleans offense has accrued 831 penalty yds on 93 infractions, which is 20th in football in terms of making mistakes. They have tossed 11 picks while allowing opponents to recover 7 fumbles and they have been able to earn 186 first downs.

They have allowed 20 touchdowns through the air and 200.8 yards/outing, which has them in 9th in the league. New Orleans has conceded a total of 1,960 yards rushing (122.5 yards per game) as well as 10 touchdowns by ground for the season. This season, they have allowed 310 points in total. Their defense has earned 26 turnovers (10 fumbles and 16 picks) for the year. The Saints defense has been on the field for 994 plays, which ranks 10th in the NFL. The Saints are surrendering 19.4 PPG, which has them sitting 6th of all teams in the league.

Who will win tonight's Falcons/Saints NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Saints -3.5

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