Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots Prediction, 11/5/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 9

Game: Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, November 5, 2023

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: FOX

Odds/Point Spread: Patriots (-2.5)

Total/Over-Under: 39.5

The New England Patriots (2-6) will compete against the Washington Commanders (3-5) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. New England opens as 2.5-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 39.5.

The Washington Commanders come into this game with a record of 3-5 this year. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Commanders played the Eagles and went home with a loss by a final score of 38-31. Sam Howell finished 39/52 with 397 yards through the air and 4 TDs. He had a quarterback rate of 114 and ended the game with 1 interception. Brian Robinson Jr. was the best rusher for the Commanders with 10 attempts for 59 yards (5.9 yds per carry). Jahan Dotson had an average of 13.5 yards per reception by tallying 108 yards on 8 catches. The Washington Commanders rushed the ball a total of 16 times and compiled 84 yards, which earned them an average of 5.3 yards per attempt. In the game, they had 69 plays which gave them 472 yds. Washington surrendered 29 completions on 38 tries for 315 yds, and a completion percentage of 76.3%. Against the rush, the Commanders conceded 59 yards on 22 attempts, which is 2.7 yards per run allowed.

When talking about putting the ball in the endzone, the Washington Commanders are averaging 21.4 points per contest. As a team they're holding an average of 85.9 yards rushing which is 26th in the league. The Commanders have earned 2,557 total yards for the season. Washington has tallied 100 first downs, and they have been hurt by 49 penalties for 396 yards. They have turned the ball over 12 times (8 picks and 4 fumbles lost). In terms of getting in the endzone, Washington has totaled 13 touchdowns via the pass and 6 touchdowns via the ground.

Regarding yards through the air, the Commanders have surrendered 2,054 yards which has them sitting in 29th in football. They have conceded 256.8 yards per contest through the air as well as allowing a completion percentage of 63.5%. Over the course of this year, they are granting 374.1 yards/game which ranks them 29th in the league. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 117.4 rushing yards per game this season. During the season, they have given up 939 running yards through 8 outings. The Commanders are ranked 31st in the league when it comes to team defense, conceding 28.5 PPG.

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The Patriots head into this game 2-6 for this season. When they last stepped on the football field, the Patriots took a loss by a final score of 31-17 when they played the Dolphins. Mac Jones (2 TDs) finished the contest with 161 yards on 19/29 passing while his quarterback rate was 88.4. He tossed 1 interception and his average yards per pass attempt was 5.6 yds. Rhamondre Stevenson ran the football 10 times for 39 yds, finishing the game with 3.9 yds per carry for New England. Kendrick Bourne was featured in the passing game for the Patriots, snagging 3 throws for 36 yds (12.0 yds per reception). New England ran the football for 4.1 yds per carry, totaling 77 yds on 19 carries. The Patriots finished the game with a total of 218 yds while they ran 51 plays (4.3 yds per play). The Patriots pass defense gave up a completion rate of 66.7%, surrendering 312 yds on 30 out of 45 through the air. New England allowed 26 run attempts for 78 yds (3.0 yards per rush).

The New England Patriots average 284.8 yards per outing ranking them 26th out of all teams in the NFL. They have an average of 84.4 yards per game on the ground and have rushed for 675 yards in total. They have given away 8 picks while conceding 5 fumbles and they have been able to obtain 76 first downs. The New England offense has racked up 401 penalty yards on 54 infractions, which is good for 7th in the NFL in terms of helping out the other team. For the season so far, the Patriots have a total of 1,603 passing yards along with an average of 200.4 passing yards per game, which has them ranked 20th in football. When it comes to how much they score, the Patriots are sitting 31st in the NFL averaging 14.8 points per outing.

They have allowed the opposition 11 touchdowns through the air as well as 223.3 yards/outing, which puts them in 17th out of all teams. New England has conceded a total of 783 yards on the ground (97.9 yards/game) in addition to 7 touchdowns by ground for the season. This year, they have relinquished 208 points in total. Their defense has totaled 7 turnovers (3 fumbles and 4 picks) for the season. The Patriots defense has taken part in 526 plays, which is good for 30th in the league. The Patriots are surrendering 26.0 PPG, which puts them in 26th in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Commanders/Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Patriots -2.5

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