New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots Prediction, 10/8/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, October 8, 2023

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Patriots (-1.5)

Total/Over-Under: 40.5

The New England Patriots (1-3) will try to beat the New Orleans Saints (2-2) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. New England opens as 1.5-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 40.5.

The New Orleans Saints head into this matchup 2-2 for this season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Saints faced off with the Buccaneers and took a loss by a score of 26-9. Derek Carr went 23/37 with 127 yards passing. He had a quarterback rating of 68.2 and walked away from the contest without throwing a pick. Alvin Kamara led the offense in rushing for the Saints with 11 carries for 51 yards (4.6 yards per attempt). Michael Thomas averaged 13.3 yds per catch by tallying 53 yds on 4 receptions. The New Orleans Saints ended up running the ball 19 times and accrued 70 yards, earning them an average of 3.7 yds per attempt. Once the final whistle blew, they had 61 plays which gave them a total of 197 yards. New Orleans gave up 25 pass completions on 33 tries for a total of 239 yds, and a completion rate of 75.8%. On the ground, the Saints conceded 114 yards on 33 attempts, which is an average of 3.5 yds per rush surrendered.

The Saints have attained 1,141 total yards this season. New Orleans has earned 41 1st downs as an offense, and they have committed 24 infractions for 237 yards. With reference to getting the ball in the endzone, New Orleans has amassed 2 touchdowns through the air and 2 touchdowns via the ground. They have surrendered the ball 6 different times (3 picks and 3 fumbles lost). As a unit they maintain an average of 87.5 yards on the ground which is 25th in the NFL. Concerning scoring points, the New Orleans Saints are sitting at 15.5 points per contest.

The Saints rank 9th in the league when it comes to team defense, allowing 19.0 points per game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 4.1 yards per run and 103.3 rushing yards per game this season. Over the course of this year, they have given up 413 running yards through 4 games. In terms of passing yards, the Saints have conceded 804 yards which has them ranked 12th in football. They have conceded 201.0 yards per game through the air as well as allowing a completion percentage of 59.0%. Overall, they are giving up 304.3 yards/contest putting them at 11th in the NFL.

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The Patriots come into this matchup with a record of 1-3 this season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Patriots took a defeat with a final score of 38-3 against the Cowboys. Mac Jones ended the game with 150 yards on 12/21 passing while his QB rating was 39.9. He threw 2 picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 7.1 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson ran the ball 14 times for 30 yards, walking away from the game with 2.1 yds per attempt for New England. Hunter Henry was the leading receiver for the Patriots, snagging 4 passes for 51 yds (12.8 yards per reception). New England ran for 2.3 yds per carry, totaling 53 yards on 23 carries. The Patriots finished the contest with a total of 253 yds and they ran 55 plays (4.6 yds per play). The Patriots passing defense gave up a completion rate of 83.3%, surrendering 253 yards on 30 for 36 through the air. New England conceded 30 running attempts for 124 yards (4.1 yards per rush).

When discussing their ability to score points, the Patriots sit 30th in the NFL maintaining an average of 13.8 PPG. Over the course of the season thus far, the Patriots have a total of 907 yards via the pass along with holding an average of 226.8 throwing yards per contest, putting them at 13th in the league. They average 93.5 rushing yards per game and have rushed for 374 yards for this season. The New England Patriots hold an average of 320.3 yards/contest which ranks them 17th in football. The New England offense has racked up 188 yards of penalties on 24 violations, which has them ranked 24th in football in terms of helping out the opposition. They have given away 4 interceptions while allowing opponents to recover 3 fumbles and they have obtained 45 1st downs.

They have allowed 3 touchdowns through the air and 196.0 yards/outing, which has them ranked 10th in the league. New England has yielded a total of 404 yards via the ground game (101.0 yards per game) and 4 touchdowns by ground this year. This season, they have relinquished 97 points in total. Their defense has totaled 2 takeaways (1 fumble and 1 interception) this year. The Patriots defense taken the field for 252 plays, which is 16th in the NFL. The Patriots are giving up 24.3 PPG, which has them in 21st of all teams in the NFL.

Who will win tonight's Saints/Patriots NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Saints +1.5

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