New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, 10/1/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys

Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023

Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX

TV: FOX

Odds/Point Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)

Total/Over-Under: 42

The Dallas Cowboys (2-1) will play the New England Patriots (1-2) at AT&T Stadium on Sunday. Dallas is 7.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under comes in at 42.

The New England Patriots come into this game with a record of 1-2 for this season. When they last stepped on the football field, the Patriots went up against the Jets and took home the win by a score of 15-10. Mac Jones went 15/29 with 201 yards passing and 1 touchdown. He had a quarterback rating of 85.6 and walked away from the contest without throwing a pick. Pharaoh Brown held an average of 35.5 yards per catch by accumulating 71 yards on 2 receptions. Ezekiel Elliott was the rushing leader for the Patriots with 16 attempts for 80 yards (5.0 yds per attempt). In the game, they ran 69 plays which gave them 358 yards. The New England Patriots ended up running the ball 40 times and compiled 157 yards, which had them averaging 3.9 yds per carry. On the ground, the Patriots conceded 38 yds on 22 attempts, which is an average of 1.7 yds per run allowed. New England allowed 18 completions on 36 attempts for 133 yards, and a completion rate of 50.0%.

Regarding putting the ball in the endzone, the New England Patriots are sitting at 17.3 points per game. As a unit they're averaging 107.0 yards rushing ranking this team at 14th in the NFL. The Patriots have attained 1,028 total yards this season. New England has a total of 37 1st downs as an offense, and they have been hurt by 18 infractions for 138 yds. They have surrendered the football 4 different times (2 picks and 2 fumbles). When it comes to scoring, New England has amassed 5 touchdowns via the pass and 1 touchdown on the ground.

The Patriots rank 11th in the league in terms of team defense, allowing 19.7 points per game. The opposition is running for an average of 3.6 yards per rush and 93.3 rushing yards per game this season. For the year, they have allowed 280 rushing yards through 3 outings. When it comes to yards through the air, the Patriots have given up 531 yards which has them sitting in 5th in the NFL. They have relinquished 177.0 yards per outing via the pass and allowed a completion percentage of 61.6%. For the year, they are surrendering 270.3 yards/game which puts them 5th in the league.

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The Cowboys come into this matchup with a record of 2-1 this season. In their last contest, the Cowboys took a loss by a score of 28-16 against the Cardinals. Dak Prescott (1 touchdown) walked away from the contest with 249 yards on 25/40 through the air while his QB rating was 78. He tossed 1 interception and his Y/A was 6.2 yards. Tony Pollard carried the rock 23 times for 122 yards, ending the contest with 5.3 yds per carry for Dallas. Michael Gallup was featured in the passing game for the Cowboys, bringing in 6 balls for 92 yds (15.3 yards per reception). Dallas ran the ball for 5.6 yds per carry, finishing the contest with 185 yards on 33 carries. The Cowboys finished the contest with a total of 416 yds while they ran 75 plays (5.5 yards per play). The Cowboys passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 81.0%, relinquishing 178 yds on 17 for 21 through the air. Dallas surrendered 30 rush attempts for 222 yards (7.4 yds per rush).

When looking at this team's ability to score points, the Cowboys rank 6th in the league averaging 28.7 PPG. During the season thus far, the Cowboys have racked up 622 yards via the pass not to mention holding an average of 207.3 passing yards per outing, which is ranked 18th in the league. They maintain an average of 147.0 rushing yards per game and have run for 441 yards for the year. The Dallas Cowboys average 354.3 yards per contest which is good for 11th out of all teams in the NFL. The Dallas offense has compiled 180 penalty yards on 24 violations, which ranks 6th in the league in terms of giving up free yards. They have given away 1 interception while conceding 0 fumbles and they have been able to earn 35 1st downs.

They have given up 2 touchdowns through the air as well as 130.7 yards per outing, which has them sitting 2nd in football. Dallas has given up a total of 394 yards rushing (131.3 yards per outing) and 2 touchdowns via the rush for the year. In total, they have conceded 38 total points. Their defense has compiled 7 turnovers (2 fumbles and 5 interceptions) on the year. The Cowboys defense has participated in 164 plays, which ranks 3rd in football. The Cowboys are conceding 12.7 points per game, which has them in 3rd in the league.

Who will win tonight's Patriots/Cowboys NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Patriots +7.5

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