New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 12/31/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 17

Game: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, December 31, 2023

Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Bills (-12)

Total/Over-Under: 41

The Buffalo Bills (9-6) will play the New England Patriots (4-11) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday. Buffalo opens as 12-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is set at 41.

The New England Patriots step onto the field holding a record of 4-11 for this season. In their last game, the Patriots played the Broncos and earned the victory with a final of 26-23. Bailey Zappe connected on 25/33 with 256 yds through the air and 2 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rating of 117.7 and finished the contest without throwing an interception. Ezekiel Elliott led the offense in rushing for the Patriots with 12 attempts for 27 yards (2.3 yds per carry). Demario Douglas left with an average of 14.8 yards per reception by tallying 74 yards on 5 receptions. The New England Patriots ended up running the ball 21 times and totaled 59 yds, earning them an average of 2.8 yards per tote. When all was said and done, they tallied 56 plays which gave them 289 yds. New England allowed 25 completions on 37 attempts for a total of 193 yds, and a completion percentage of 67.6%. On the ground, the Patriots conceded 83 yards on 23 attempts, which averages out to 3.6 yds per rush allowed.

Regarding getting in the endzone, the New England Patriots have an average of 14.1 points per outing. As a team they average 95.7 yards on the ground which has them sitting 25th in the National Football League. The Patriots have earned 4,283 total yards over the course of this season. New England has earned 142 first downs, and they have been called for 83 penalties for 621 yds. They have surrendered the football 23 different times (16 interceptions and 7 fumbles). When it comes to getting in the endzone, New England has compiled 16 touchdowns through the air and 7 rushing touchdowns.

The Patriots are ranked 16th in the NFL regarding the opposition scoring, conceding 21.5 PPG. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.2 yards per running attempt and 84.8 rushing yards per game for the season. In total, they have allowed 1,272 yards via the ground game in 15 games. When it comes to passing yardage, the Patriots have given up 3,320 yards which ranks them 15th in the NFL. They have given up 221.3 yards per contest via the pass as well as giving up a completion percentage of 66.1%. Overall, they are allowing 306.1 yards/game ranking them 8th in football.

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The Bills come into this matchup with a record of 9-6 for this season. In their last game, the Bills got the win with a final of 24-22 when they played the Chargers. James Cook ran the football 20 times for 70 yards, walking away from the game with 3.5 yards per carry for Buffalo. Gabriel Davis was one of the featured targets for the Bills, hauling in 4 balls for 130 yds (32.5 yds per catch). Josh Allen (1 touchdown) ended the game with 237 yds on 15/21 passing while his QB rating was 104.7. He had 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 11.3 yards. Buffalo conceded 27 attempts on the ground for 98 yds (3.6 yds per carry). The Bills pass defense gave up a completion rate of 69.7%, surrendering 175 yds on 23 for 33 passing. The Bills ended up finishing with 335 yds on 52 plays (6.4 yds per play). Buffalo rushed the football for 3.5 yds per carry, finishing with a total of 105 yards on 30 carries.

Concerning this team's ability to score points, the Bills are sitting 6th in the league holding an average of 26.9 PPG. For the season thus far, the Bills currently sit at 3,655 yards through the air not to mention holding an average of 243.7 passing yards per game, giving them a rank of 9th out of all NFL teams. They hold an average of 130.5 rushing yards per game and have toted the ball for 1,957 yards for the season. The Buffalo Bills average 374.1 yards per outing which ranks them 4th in the NFL. The Buffalo offense has accrued 810 penalty yards on 96 infractions, which ranks them 9th in football in terms of helping out the opposition. They have tossed 15 interceptions while allowing opponents to recover 9 fumbles and they have obtained 177 first downs.

The Bills are surrendering 18.4 points per game, which has them sitting 4th of all teams in the NFL. They have allowed 17 touchdowns via the pass and 198.9 yards per game, which has them ranked 9th in the league. Buffalo has conceded a total of 1,669 yards rushing (111.3 yards/game) and 11 touchdowns rushing this year. The Bills defense has participated in 914 plays, which ranks them 6th in the league. They have 24 turnovers (11 fumbles and 13 picks) for the year. In total, they have relinquished 276 total points.

Who will win tonight's Patriots/Bills NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Patriots +12

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