Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, 10/1/2023 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023

Location: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY

TV: CBS

Odds/Point Spread: Bills (-3.5)

Total/Over-Under: 49

The Buffalo Bills (2-1) welcome the Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday. Miami opens this contest as 3.5-point dogs. The over/under is set at 49.

The Miami Dolphins come into this matchup with a record of 3-0 for this season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Dolphins faced the Broncos and walked away with a win by a score of 70-20. Tua Tagovailoa connected on 23/26 with 309 yds passing and 4 touchdowns. He had a QB rating of 155.8 and finished the game without throwing a pick. De'Von Achane led the offense in rushing for the Dolphins with 18 carries for 203 yards (11.3 yds per attempt). Tyreek Hill averaged 17.4 yards per catch by totaling 157 yards on 9 catches. The Miami Dolphins ran the rock 43 times and accumulated 350 yds, which came out to an average of 8.1 yds per attempt. Overall, they ran 71 plays for 726 yards. Miami allowed 23 pass completions on 38 attempts for 294 yards, and a completion percentage of 60.5%. Against the rush, the Dolphins conceded 69 yards on 20 attempts, which is an average of 3.5 yds per rush surrendered.

Concerning getting in the endzone, the Miami Dolphins have an average of 43.3 PPG. As a unit they average 188.3 yards on the ground which ranks them 1st in the National Football League. The Dolphins have earned 1,651 total yards this year. Miami has 54 first downs as a unit, and they have been called for 18 penalties for 139 yds. They have turned the football over 3 different times (2 interceptions and 1 fumble lost). In terms of scoring touchdowns, Miami has compiled 9 touchdowns via the pass and 8 touchdowns via the ground.

When talking about passing yardage, the Dolphins have allowed 694 yards which puts them in 20th in the National Football League. They have allowed 231.3 yards per game through the air as well as giving up a completion percentage of 68.1%. In total, they are surrendering 361.3 yards per game ranking them 23rd in the league. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.6 yards per run and 130.0 rushing yards per contest this season. In total, they have allowed 390 yards via the ground game in 3 games. The Dolphins are sitting in 21st in the NFL in terms of the opposition scoring, conceding 23.7 PPG.

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The Bills head into this matchup 2-1 for this season. In their last game, the Bills went home victorious with a score of 37-3 when they faced the Commanders. Josh Allen (1 TD) walked away from the game with 218 yards on 20/32 through the air while his quarterback rate was 79.9. He tossed 1 pick and his average yds per pass attempt was 6.8 yds. James Cook carried the football 15 times for 98 yards, walking away from the game with 6.5 yards per carry for Buffalo. Stefon Diggs was the top contributor in the passing game for the Bills, bringing in 8 throws for 111 yds (13.9 yards per catch). Buffalo rushed the football for 5.1 yards per attempt, finishing the contest with 168 yards on 33 attempts. The Bills finished with 386 yds while they ran 65 plays (5.9 yds per play). The Bills passing defense conceded a completion rate of 65.5%, relinquishing 125 yards on 19 out of 29 through the air. Buffalo allowed 13 rushing attempts for 105 yards (8.1 yards per rush).

The Buffalo Bills maintain an average of 383.3 yards/game which ranks them 7th in the NFL. They maintain an average of 149.3 yards per game on the ground and have run for 448 yards for the season. They have thrown 4 picks while letting opponents recover 1 fumble and they have been able to earn 38 first downs. The Buffalo offense has accrued 115 penalty yards on 15 violations, which ranks them 27th in football in terms of helping out the opposition. During this campaign so far, the Bills currently sit at 702 yards via the pass along with holding an average of 234.0 passing yards per game, which has them ranked 12th in the league. When looking at the points being put on the board, the Bills are ranked 2nd in the league averaging 30.3 points per contest.

The Bills are conceding 11.7 points per game, which has them sitting 2nd of all teams in the league. They have given up 2 touchdowns from the passing game as well as 142.3 yards per outing, ranking them 3rd out of all teams. Buffalo has allowed the opposition a total of 332 rushing yards (110.7 yards per game) in addition to 0 touchdowns by ground for the season. The Bills defense taken the field for 143 plays, which is good for 1st in the league. They have tallied 9 turnovers (2 fumbles recovered and 7 picks) on the year. Overall, they have allowed 35 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Dolphins/Bills NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Dolphins +3.5

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